Only five undefeated college football teams are still standing ahead of Week 12’s matchups: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Minnesota and Baylor.
Two teams fell off this list following last week’s games, Alabama and Penn State, but they both faced other unbeaten teams so we knew we’d lose at least a couple. The Big Ten still leads the way with two teams, while the SEC, ACC and Big 12 each have one representative here.
Here are our predictions for how the five remaining undefeated teams will play and whether or not they’ll keep their perfect records alive in Week 12. They’re based on their upcoming opponents, how they’ve played so far, the College Football Playoff rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.
(All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
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No. 1 LSU Tigers 9-0
Wins: Georgia Southern, Texas, Northwestern State, Vanderbilt, Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama
Chance of winning out: 42.4 percent
Week 12 game: Ole Miss (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
After handing Alabama its first loss of the season in Week 11, the Tigers are officially the hottest team in college football, and their chance to win out skyrocketed after being just 12.1 percent last week. Quarterback Joe Burrow solidified himself as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner, and he’s led the No. 4 offense in the nation through the roughest stretch of the schedule. LSU should have little trouble with Ole Miss this weekend, and the same goes for Arkansas and Texas A&M down the road.
The Tigers are 21.5-point favorites on the road.
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 9-0
Wins: Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami (Ohio), Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Maryland
Chance of winning out: 62.7 percent
Week 12 game: Rutgers (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
Oh man, this is going to be so brutal. It seems incredibly unlikely that Rutgers’ offense, which averages 280.3 yards per game, will be able to do anything a top-ranked defense that gives up 214.8 yards and fewer than nine points a game. The Scarlet Knights might not even get on the board, while Ohio State looks like it could put up 700 yards and at least 60 points against an opponent still searching for its first Big Ten win in 2019.
The Buckeyes are 52-point favorites on the road.
No. 3 Clemson Tigers 10-0
Wins: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Charlotte, North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Boston College, Wofford, NC State
Chance of winning out: 83.9 percent
Week 12 game: Wake Forest (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
Forget about Clemson’s rough — but obviously undefeated — start to the 2019 season. The Tigers have found their rhythm against 68th strongest schedule, and they’re back to wrecking opponents. Their defense has been great nearly all season and is third in points against (11.5 per game) and fourth in yards allowed (251.5 per game). And now it looks like their offense has returned to its expected form, despite quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s four-way tie for the most interceptions thrown in the ACC. (But to be fair, he hasn’t thrown one in the last three games.)
In the five games since Clemson’s one-point win over North Carolina that no one can seem to forget, it’s averaging 52.6 points per game and has outscored opponents 263-55. It has the best chance in the nation to win out with just two regular-season games left, and that sounds about right.
The Tigers are 34-point favorites at home.
No. 8 Minnesota Golden Gophers 9-0
Wins: South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State
Chance of winning out: 1.1 percent
Week 12 game: Iowa (4 p.m. ET, FOX)
Undefeated after Week 12: Yes
We underestimated the Golden Gophers last week against Penn State, and clearly, that was a huge mistake. Won’t let that happen twice. Minnesota had a two-touchdown lead at one point against what is still a top-5 defense that was giving up fewer than 10 points per game.
Iowa also has one of the nation’s best defenses, but we’re picking quarterback Tanner Morgan — who’s No. 3 in the nation with 10.9 yards per attempt, behind only Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa — and the Golden Gophers to beat the Hawkeyes, even if the game is at Kinnick Stadium.
Minnesota is a slight 3-point underdog.
No. 13 Baylor Bears 9-0
Wins: Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, Rice, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, TCU
Chance of winning out: 4.4 percent
Week 12 game: Oklahoma (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 12: No
It seems like every week we pick against the Bears, and ever week, we’re wrong. However, this time, it really seems like they’re going to lose in a game that could determine both teams’ fate in terms of the College Football Playoff. Baylor is coming off a close triple-overtime win against TCU last week, while Oklahoma barely beat Iowa State after blowing a 21-point lead. We’re predicting a similar ending. Quarterback Jalen Hurts and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb will do some serious early damage before Baylor claws its way back. But in the end, we think this is where the Bears’ win streak ends.
Baylor is a 10.5-point underdog.
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