Three college football teams survived their regular-season schedules and enter conference championship weekend undefeated: Ohio State, LSU and Clemson. If they all win, the College Football Playoff will have three undefeated teams for the second straight year.
Regardless of what the top-3 teams do this weekend, their conference title games certainly aren’t the only ones that could impact the playoff picture. And there’s potential for some phenomenal chaos.
So here are our predictions for all 10 conference championship games this weekend. They’re based on how the teams have played up to this point, the College Football Playoff rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.
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Big Ten championship game: No. 1 Ohio State (12-0) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (10-2)
When: Saturday, December 7, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
We were very wrong earlier this season when we picked the Badgers to upset the Buckeyes — Ohio State won, 38-7 — so we won’t make that mistake twice. As a 16.5-point favorite here, Ohio State is the most complete team in the country with the No. 1 defense (232.3 yards/game) and the No. 5 offense (534.3 yards/game), and coming off back-to-back wins against ranked opponents, it’s obvious why the Buckeyes are in a fight for the top seed in the College Football Playoff.
They’re led by three players who could be Heisman Trophy finalists with quarterback Justin Fields, running back J.K. Dobbins and defensive end Chase Young, and even though Wisconsin looked good in its win over Minnesota last weekend, the Badgers don’t have enough to take down the Buckeyes’ ridiculously talented roster. However, it’s also worth noting that if we’re wrong again about this matchup, the playoff committee could find itself in a nightmare situation.
Winner: Ohio State
SEC championship game: No. 4 Georgia (11-1) vs. No. 2 LSU (12-0)
When: Saturday, December 7, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Georgia’s No. 4 defense might suppress LSU for a while, but ultimately, the Tigers will win this one as 6.5-point favorites. Led by quarterback and huge Heisman favorite Joe Burrow, LSU’s offense is No. 2 in the country with 560.4 yards per game, 390.0 of them in the air, and Burrow leads the nation with a ridiculous 78.3 completion percentage. The Tigers’ defense — which is giving up 345.9 yards and 22.1 points per game — isn’t quite what the fan base is used to, but it’s enough to hand the Bulldogs a second straight SEC title game loss.
Winner: LSU
ACC championship game: No. 23 Virginia (9-3) vs. No. 3 Clemson (12-0)
When: Saturday, December 7, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
With the No. 2 defense and No. 3 offense in the nation, Clemson is going to hang at least 40 (but maybe actually 50 or 60) points on the Cavaliers, and that’s all there is to it. The Tigers will then be an undefeated College Football Playoff team for the second straight year.
Dabo Swinney doesn’t care for the perceived bias against his team, but the Tigers are in a weak conference that can’t keep up with them. And that will continue to be obvious when they beat UVA as 28.5-point favorites.
Winner: Clemson
Pac-12 championship game: No. 5 Utah (11-1) vs. No. 13 Oregon (10-2)
When: Friday, December 6, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
This game could go either way because these teams are fairly equally matched, though Utah is a 6.5-point favorite. Utah’s defense is incredible and only giving up 241.6 yards per game (No. 3 nationally) and 4.2 yards per play (No. 4). However, Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, who has 31 touchdowns to give interceptions, cannot be over looked as Utah’s dominant rushing defense will likely force him to take control. But his Utah counterpart, Tyler Huntley, is having an outstanding season with a 75.5 completion percentage, ranking him second in the nation to only Burrow.
Oregon’s chance to make the College Football Playoff evaporated when the Ducks lost for a second time this season, but the consolation prize is the chance for a conference championship that’s actually a double-edged sword for the Pac-12. Should they beat Utah, the conference will probably be shut out of the playoff for the third straight season. But if Utah wins convincingly, it could have a better playoff resume than the Big 12 champ, if it comes down to that.
Winner: Oregon
Big 12 championship game: No. 7 Baylor (11-1) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma (11-1)
When: Saturday, December 7, Noon ET (ABC)
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
When these two teams played each other in November, the Sooners dug themselves into a gigantic hole and were down 28-3 at one point ion the second quarter. Quarterback Jalen Hurts had three turnovers (an interception and two fumbles), but he also led an incredible comeback run and threw for four touchdowns in his team’s 34-31 win. We’re not expecting this rematch to start the same way, but it will have the same result. Oklahoma’s prolific offense leads the nation with 564.3 yards per game and is fifth with 44.3 points per game. Baylor’s top-40 defense won’t be able to stifle it this time.
A possible trip to the College Football Playoff is on the line for the winner, depending on how some other conference championship games turn out. And the Sooners, as 9-point favorites, could earn their third straight playoff berth.
Winner: Oklahoma
American Athletic Conference championship game: No. 20 Cincinnati (10-2) vs. No. 17 Memphis (11-1)
When: Saturday, December 7, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
This is going to be fun because while several teams playing this weekend are getting rematches from the regular season, this is the only one where the teams have consecutive games. Last weekend, the Tigers held on for a 34-24 victory in a fairly even matchup that was also at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. The Bearcats turned the ball over three times in the second half, but Memphis failed to score on its following possessions. Tigers quarterback Brady White completed 15-of-26 passes for 233 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, while Bearcats passer Ben Bryant was 20-for-32 for 229 yards, one touchdown and two picks, including one with just 95 seconds left in the game.
Normally, we’d probably pick the first loser to come back and win an immediate rematch. But, in addition to Memphis looking like the better team, the Tigers also lost the AAC title game the last two seasons to UCF and surely haven’t forgotten about that. So we’re predicting Memphis will win as a 9-point favorite with a trip to New Year’s Six bowl on the line.
Winner: Memphis
Mountain West championship game: Hawaii (9-4) vs. No. 19 Boise State (11-1)
When: Saturday, December 7, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
While Boise State is playing for its second conference championship in three years, Hawaii is making its conference title game debut. And although it will be nice (especially for East Coasters) to watch the Rainbow Warriors play at a time other than the middle of the night, we’re predicting the Broncos win this one as 14-point favorites. They already beat Hawaii in October, 59-37, and they should be able to do it again with senior quarterback Jaylon Henderson — who threw eight touchdowns and one interception in the last three games — now Boise State’s No. 1 passer.
Winner: Boise State
Sun Belt championship game: Louisiana (10-2) vs. No. 21 Appalachian State (11-1)
When: Saturday, December 7, Noon ET (ESPN)
Where: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, North Carolina
Our motto all season has been don’t ever pick against Appalachian State, and we’re not about to change that now. The Mountaineers have the Sun Belt’s best defense, which allows 321.2 yards per game and averages 18.8 points against, while the Ragin’ Cajuns lead the conference on offense with 500.3 yards per game and are eighth nationally. But App State is on a roll this season with the best 12-game record in conference history. And after beating Louisiana, 17-7, in the regular season, we’re picking the 6.5-point favorites to complete the sweep and advance to 8-0 overall in this series.
Winner: Appalachian State
Conference USA championship game: UAB (9-3) vs. Florida Atlantic (9-3)
When: Saturday, December 7, 1:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)
Where: FAU Football Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
Statistically, UAB has the fifth best defense in country, giving up an average of just 269.8 yards per game, but that won’t be able to compensate for what it’s lacking on offense. The Blazers might be able to slow down Lane Kiffin’s offense a little, but that won’t matter much if their offense, which ranks 10th in the conference, can’t produce. Especially as a 7.5-point favorite at home, FAU should be able to get the win.
Winner: FAU
MAC championship game: Miami (Ohio) (7-5) vs. Central Michigan (8-4)
When: Saturday, December 7, Noon ET (ESPN2)
Where: Ford Field, Detroit
This one feels like it will start off close, but Jim McElwain and his Central Michigan team will ultimately pull away. Both teams have two of the conference’s best defenses, but Miami’s crumbled in its 41-27 loss last week to Ball State and gave up 578 yards (317 passing) and three fourth-quarter touchdowns. Central Michigan is only a slight 6.5-point favorite, and with maybe a little home-field advantage, we’re picking the Chippewas to get it done with some good ol’ #MACtion fun in there.
Winner: Central Michigan
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