The Pittsburgh Pirates (27-46) and St. Louis Cardinals (36-39) play the second game of their four-game series Friday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Pirates won the first game of the series 8-2 Thursday as the top third of their lineup (2B Adam Frazier, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes and CF Bryan Reynolds) went a combined 8-for-12 at the plate with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs.
Season series: Cardinals lead 5-1.
RHP Wil Crowe takes the ball for the Pirates. Crowe is 0-4 with a 6.42 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 over nine starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 2 K in Pittsburgh’s 6-3 victory over the Cleveland Indians Saturday.
- Crowe took a loss May 2 against the Cardinals with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 2 K.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 17 at-bats with a .176/.364/.412 slash line, 2/4 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.
LHP Kwang Hyun Kim makes his 12th start for the Cardinals. Kim is 1-5 with a 3.60 ERA (50 IP, 20 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 1-0, with 4 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K Sunday at Atlanta.
- vs. Pirates on the current roster: 36 at-bats with a .250/.250/.389 slash line, 5/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 3 RBIs.
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Pirates at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:02 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Cardinals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-140) | Cardinals -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Pirates 3
Money line (ML)
PASS even though I “lean” to St. Louis’s First 5 Innings run line because the money line is too expensive given the Cardinals’ four-game losing skid and dropping six of their last seven games.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the CARDINALS -0.5 (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit since Kim’s advanced pitching numbers vs. current Pirates batters far exceed Crowe’s against current St. Louis hitters.
In fact, most of Kim’s pitching peripherals against Pittsburgh are better than Crowe vs. the Cardinals including FIP, opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K% and exit velocity.
I’m taking St. Louis’s First 5 Innings instead of the full game because the Cardinals relievers have the highest BB%, xFIP and SIERA in the majors, so I’m looking to avoid that bullpen.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 5 (-125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Pittburgh’s lineup is in the bottom-5 of the MLB on the road and vs. left-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate.
Also, St. Louis’s lineup isn’t much better than Pittsburgh’s. The Cardinals are 22nd in WAR, 25th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA and 21st in hard-hit rate.
The Under is also a “contrarian play” on a market that’s betting the Over heavily and the Pirates are 2-6-1 O/U in Crowe’s nine starts this season despite Crowe having a bloated ERA.
As with St. Louis’s First 5 Innings run line, the UNDER 5 (-125) FIRST 5 INNINGS is a way to avoid both teams’ overcooked and unreliable bullpens.
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