The Pittsburgh Pirates (33-56) and New York Mets (47-39) play the finale of a four-game set Sunday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Chase De Jong is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 over 33 2/3 IP across 7 starts.
De Jong was 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in five June starts, but he started off July nicely with a win against the Atlanta Braves Monday. He allowed just 1 run on 4 hits and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts across 5 innings.
LHP Aaron Loup is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 across 26 innings spanning 30 relief appearances.
Loup has never started an MLB game and threw 40 pitches over 3 innings in his longest outing of the 2021 season.
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Pirates at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Mets -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-105) | Mets -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Mets 8, Pirates 1
Money line (ML)
The Mets (-225) are very expensive, and it’s hard to imagine the Pirates (+185) cobbling much offense together, even with Loup making the start.
De Jong has been just too shaky, despite an encouraging start last time out, and you cannot take a flier on the big-time underdog.
AVOID.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The METS -1.5 (-115) are a better value on the run line in Sunday’s finale heading into the break.
The first-place team in the NL East is also worth a look on the alternate line, playing METS -2.5 (+125) for a small-unit wager. The Pirates won’t be able to generate much, and New York should pile up the runs against De Jong.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 8.5 (-120) is the lean, not because the Pirates will be able to plate many runs, but because the Mets should go bonkers in the series finale against the very giving De Jong.
Should the Mets knock him out early, they can pick apart the Bucs’ bullpen, which has a 4.36 ERA, to rank ninth in the National League.
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