The Milwaukee Brewers (35-27) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (23-38) Friday in the first game of their three-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Pirates lead 2-1.
RHP Chase De Jong takes the hill for the Pirates. He is 0-0 with 6 ER, 10 H, 3 BB and 10 K over 10 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K in Pittsburgh’s 8-7 victory over the Miami Marlins Saturday.
RHP Brandon Woodruff makes his 13th start for the Brewers. He is 4-2 with a 1.42 ERA (76 IP, 12 ER), an MLB-leading 0.737 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 9 K in Milwaukee’s 7-5 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday.
- vs. Pirates on the current roster: 69 at-bats with a .261/.363/.420 slash line, 26/9 K/BB, 2 HR and 6 RBIs.
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Pirates at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Brewers -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +2.5 (-135) | Brewers -2.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Brewers 3, Pirates 1
Money line (ML)
PASS since Milwaukee is the right side but the Brewers (-300) are well out of my price range.
Woodruff is perhaps having the second-best season of any starter in the National League other than Jacob deGrom but he lost his previous start against the Pirates in 2020. Also, his 5-inning outing against the D-Backs last weekend was his first non-quality start since Opening Day so maybe there’s some regression on the way.
However, I’m not betting the Pirates because Woodruff’s said regression is completely theoretical since his advanced pitching numbers are off the charts and he has the second-best FIP (2.20) among qualified NL starters.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the PIRATES +2.5 (-135) for a quarter unit if at all because that’s where the value is in this matchup.
Milwaukee’s lineup is 26th in wRC+, 25th in wOBA and 18th in WAR. Additionally, the Brewers are without several key bats in 3B Travis Shaw, OF Lorenzo Cain and 2B Kolten Wong.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for 1 unit as the best bet in the Pirates-Brewers meeting since Woodruff is a Cy Young candidate and De Jong should be amped up to give Pittsburgh a shot to beat Milwaukee’s ace.
Furthermore, the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing the Under whereas the public money is taking the Over.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the cash is on the Under while more than three-fourths of the bets placed are on the Over. It’s wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd in sports betting.
Obviously, the Brew Crew’s lineup struggles and absences belong in this section as well and, surprisingly, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has a better WAR than Milwaukee’s.
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