The Pittsburgh Pirates (6-8) and Milwaukee Brewers (7-6) continue their weekend series Saturday with a 7:10 p.m. ET tilt at American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Trevor Cahill is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. Over 13 games the last two years (2020-21), Cahill is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in 34 IP. The right-hander held a hot-hitting San Diego Padres club to 1 run with 8 K’s in 5 IP on Monday.
LHP Brett Anderson is the projected starter for the Brewers. Over 12 starts the last two years, Anderson is 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 57 IP. He has allowed 5 ER over 10 IP this season.
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Pirates at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-165) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Brewers 5, Pirates 4
Money line (ML)
The Pirates won Friday’s series opener, 6-1. They are 5-2 over their last 7 games. Milwaukee is 6-3 over its last 9 contests.
Pittsburgh struggled mightily on the road in 2020. The Bucs went 6-22 (.214) with a league-worst .607 OPS at the plate.
With an all-too-early look at Milwaukee’s record vs. their Pythagorean mark (a measure of expected record based on runs and runs allowed), the Brewers are off a tick. The Milwaukee offense figures to have more in the tank; it has been somewhat undone by a .257 batting average on balls in play. The Pittsburgh offense owns a .409 BABIP in high-leverage situations, so the Pirates figure to be out a bit too far over their skis.
BACK MILWAUKEE -135.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run line: not enough confidence in the Brewers pitching to swing enough probability for a multi-run victory
Over/Under (O/U)
Through two starts, Cahill has exhibited a downshift in velocity and an uptick in hard contact allowed. Anderson’s velocity is also down a tick, and the left-hander has notched a mere 2.9% swinging-strike rate over his first two starts.
Add some upside metrics for the home side in a home-run favoring ballpark, and BACK THE OVER 8 (-120).
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