The Pittsburgh Pirates (41-67) and Cincinnati Reds (57-51) open a four-game series Thursday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Pirates RHP Wil Crowe (3-5, 5.40 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 71 2/3 IP in 16 games this season – he made 1 relief appearance.
- Crowe hasn’t pitched more than 6 innings in a single start this season, but he’s fared well in his last two outings: 2-0, 1.59 ERA (2 ER, 11 1/3 IP), 5 H and 13 K.
- In his last start, a win against the Philadelphia Phillies Friday, he allowed a season-low 1 hit in 6 innings.
Reds RHP Sonny Gray (3-6, 4.26 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 through 76 IP.
- Gray has been up and down in July with a trip to the 10-day injured list. He allowed 2 or fewer runs in two July starts, but also had a 5-run game and an 8-run outing in the month.
- He faced the Pirates May 12, allowing 1 run on 7 hits in 4 2/3 IP in a game the Reds won 5-1 in 10 innings.
Pirates at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:38 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Reds -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-102) | Reds -1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
Reds 6, Pirates 4
Money line (ML)
This is a matchup between the league’s sixth-best and last-ranked scoring offenses. The Pirates are 30th in runs and 19th in hits, while the Reds are sixth and fifth, respectively.
Pittsburgh is 3-7 in its last 10 games, losing all seven games by 2 or more runs. I like the Reds (-250) to win, but the spread comes at a high price.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Reds are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games and have won six of their last eight games overall. The Pirates have covered in just three of their last 10, struggling as of late, as they have all season.
Bet the REDS -1.5 (-122) to cover the spread. They’re at home with Gray looking to build on a 1-run outing his last time on the mound.
Over/Under (O/U)
In the last five games between these two teams, the total has gone Over four times. The Over is 4-1 in the Reds’ last five home games, too.
Furthermore, the Pirates have scored 26 total runs in the last three starts by Crowe, giving him good run support.
Bet the OVER 9.5 (-102).
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