The Pittsburgh Pirates (14-32) and Cincinnati Reds (23-26) will play the third game of a four-game series Tuesday evening at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. We analyze the Pirates-Reds MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Pirates at Reds: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen
Musgrove has started five games for the Pirates. He has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.
- Was on the injured list (triceps) for several weeks midseason. Tuesday’s road start will mark his third turn back. Not built back up to full strength, Musgrove threw just 64 pitches over 4 innings in his last start.
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Lorenzen is a relief pitcher tabbed to take opening innings in Tuesday’s tilt against Pittsburgh. The 28-year-old right-hander owns a 5.23 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP through 15 relief appearances.
- Owns a 1.17 ERA over his last 15 1/3 IP. That stretch includes three appearances against the Pirates (combined 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, O ER).
- Threw 40 pitches in his last relief appearance (Sept. 10) and has thrown as many as 57 in a game this season.
- Logged a 2.92 ERA in 73 games a year ago.
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Pirates at Reds: Key injuries
(List of injuries around the league)
Pirates
- RP Keone Kala (forearm) out
- OF Anthony Alford (elbow) out
Reds
- RP Tyler Thornburg (elbow) out
- OF Jesse Winker (back) out
Pirates at Reds: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Money line (ML)
Cincinnati (-129) swept Pittsburgh (+115) in a doubleheader Monday, and the Pirates have now lost six in a row. Both offenses struggle mightily on the road (the Pirates’ .600 road OPS ranks last in MLB), but Cincinnati stakes its pitchers to a fighting chance at home with an above-average .784 OPS.
Both bullpens are middle-third units comparative to the league, but the Reds have some upside to move the needle. Cincinnati has been hurt by unkind margins in scoring-position situations and by a high home run rate on fly balls (despite being a top-10 unit in avoiding hard contact).
Starting pitchers aside, in the intermediate future the Reds will be a moderate lean toward plays (betting for); the Bucs will be a heavy lean toward fades (betting against). Tuesday’s line — REDS (-129) — fits into that.
New to sports betting? A winning $100 bet on Cincinnati returns a profit of $77.52, while a $100 wager on Pittsburgh (+115) nets a profit of $115 if the Pirates win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The under-performing and inconsistent Reds have been a shaky run line proposition in 2020. They are tagged with an attractive line here, however, and seven of Pittsburgh’s last eight losses have been by multiple runs. Consider the REDS -1.5 (+155).
Over/Under (O/U)
Steer clear of what is just a razor thin lean toward the OVER 8.5 (-110).
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