The Pittsburgh Pirates (45-66) hope to salvage a split with the Arizona Diamondbacks (50-60) in the finale of their 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Chase Field is at 3:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 3-3
The Pirates lost the first 2 games of the series 3-0 Monday and 6-4 Tuesday but bounced back with a 6-4 win Wednesday. Pittsburgh is 2-4 in its last 6 games, 5-4 in its last 9 and 5-11 in its last 16.
The Diamondbacks had their 3-game win streak snapped Wednesday but still have won 5 of their last 7 games.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Pirates at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP JT Brubaker vs. RHP Merrill Kelly
Brubaker (2-10, 4.49 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 108 1/3 IP.
- Took the loss in an 8-6 defeat to Arizona June 3 as he allowed 6 runs (5 earned) on 8 hits over 4 innings.
- The Pirates have lost his last 5 starts and are 7-14 when he pitches.
Kelly (10-5, 2.86 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 132 1/3 IP.
- Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 straight starts.
- Is 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA since the start of July.
Pirates at Diamondbacks odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Diamondbacks -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-135) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Pirates at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Pirates 2
Money line
Kelly has been Arizona’s best pitcher since the start of July and the team plays well at home and especially against teams with a losing record. While the D-Backs themselves are 10 games under .500, they are 34-26 against teams who are .500 or worse and are 31-29 at home.
The Pirates are 21-37 on the road and 27-30 against teams who are .500 or worse.
However, the -190 price tag makes it not worth the action to bet the money line. PASS.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 8/31/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
Ten of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 wins have been by 2 or more runs.
The Pirates do have 5 one-run losses in their last 11 losses and are 31-27 ATS away from home, but Arizona is 34-26 ATS at home, the 4th-best mark in the majors.
Ten of the Pirates’ 14 losses with Brubaker starting have been by 2 or more runs.
Take the DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+110).
Over/Under
Kelly’s last 5 starts have all had fewer than 8 total runs. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 himself in his last 7 starts and he goes deep into games, pitching at least 7 innings in his last 5 outings.
Arizona hasn’t scored more than 5 runs in 9 of its last 13 games.
Take UNDER 7.5 (+100).
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO and NJ. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Jess Root on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]