The Pittsburgh Pirates (44-66) have dropped the first 2 games of their 4-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (50-59) and will look to bounce back Wednesday. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 3-2
The Pirates are 1-4 through half of their 10-game road trip and have slipped back into last place in the NL Central.
The Diamondbacks have won 3 games in a row and are now 9-2 at home since the All-Star break.
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Pirates at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner
Keller (3-8, 4.21 ERA) makes his 20th start and 22nd appearance. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 107 IP.
- Has allowed a total of 6 ER through 31 IP (1.74 ERA) over his last 5 starts with just 6 walks and only 22 strikeouts.
- Has put up a 4.12 ERA on the road this season with 46/21 K/BB through 54 2/3 IP and just 4 HR allowed.
Bumgarner (6-10, 3.96 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 116 IP.
- He has been much better at home (3.31 ERA and 2.6 K/BB) than on the road (4.88 ERA and 1.7 K/BB).
- Is missing bats at the lowest rate of his career and is allowing a lot of hard contact, with his HardHit% ranking in the 13th percentile.
Pirates at Diamondbacks odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:43 am. ET.
- Money line (ML): Pirates +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Diamondbacks -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-155) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Pirates at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 5, Diamondbacks 4
Money line
Bumgarner’s surface stats at home are strong but the underlying numbers, including a 4.67 xFIP at Chase Field, don’t support his success. He has allowed 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts with just 2 K across 11 2/3 IP.
Bumgarner is tough to back at this price, and even a subpar Pittsburgh offense should get to him. Take the PIRATES (+133).
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Run line/Against the spread
Though Keller’s skills don’t quite support the sub-2.00 ERA he has posted over his last 5 starts, he has been pitching well and has really cut down on the walks. Look for the PIRATES +1.5 (-155) to keep this one close even if they fall short of the outright win.
Over/Under
The total has gone over in 6 of Arizona’s last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter and they have averaged 4.8 runs per game since the All-Star break.
The total has gone over in just 2 of Pittsburgh’s last 8 contests against a lefty but the bats should get going against Bumgarner. Go with OVER 8.5 (+100) or adjust the line and play ALTERNATE TOTAL OVER 7.5 (-140).
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