The Washington Capitals (35-12-5) host the Pittsburgh Penguins (32-14-5) Sunday at Capital One Arena in a battle of the top-two teams in the Metropolitan Division. Puck drop is scheduled for shortly after 12:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Penguins-Capitals sports betting odds and lines, while providing NHL betting tips and picks around this matchup.
Penguins at Capitals: Projected starting goalies
Matt Murray at Ilya Samsonov
Murray will make his first start since Jan. 19, but he entered the lengthy layoff with five consecutive wins. He’s 15-6-4 through 27 starts, with a .900 save percentage and 2.84 goals against average. He’ll be looking to wrestle starts back from Tristan Jarry in the second half.
To a mild surprise, Samsonov draws Sunday’s marquee start instead of Braden Holtby. The younger Samsonov, 22, has been credited with the win in each of his last 11 starts. He has a .925 SV% and 2.12 GAA, and has become the Caps’ go-to option in net.
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Penguins at Capitals: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Capitals 3, Penguins 1
Moneyline (ML)
I’m backing Samsonov and the fully healthy CAPITALS (-139) in Sunday’s rivalry spot. The Pens (+115) offer decent value, but the Caps sport a 15-6-4 home record for the season. Both teams are 7-3-0 across their last 10 games and are coming off wins Friday. Washington beat the Ottawa Senators 5-3 on the road, and Pittsburgh got past the Philadelphia Flyers 4-3 in a shootout on home ice.
This is the first of four games the two rivals will play against each other between Sunday and March 22. They haven’t met yet this season.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Capitals to win returns a profit of $7.20.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Take a risk on Super Bowl Sunday and double down with the CAPITALS (-1.5, +185) to win by at least 2 goals. Washington is 28-24 against the spread overall but just 9-16 at home, while Pittsburgh is 24-27 ATS overall and 13-11 on the road.
Each of the Caps’ last six wins was by a margin of at least 2 goals. The Penguins’ last three losses were each decided by a three-goal margin.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 6.5 (-139) is a strong play between two streaking goaltenders. I’d even consider the alternate line of UNDER 5.5 (+150) at plus-money for a greater return on investment. Both teams hit the Over six times in their last 10 games, but they will have their offensive outputs tempered against a strong ‘tender.
Esten’s NHL betting record: 199-185
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