The No. 15 Virginia Cavaliers (12-3, 8-1 ACC) host the Pittsburgh Panthers (9-5, 5-4 ACC) Saturday in the John Paul Jones Arena at 4 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Pittsburgh-Virginia college basketball odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Pittsburgh at Virginia: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:00 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pittsburgh +425 (bet $100 to win $425) | Virginia -600 (bet $600 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pittsburgh +9.5 (-105) | Virginia -9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 126.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Pittsburgh at Virginia: Three things to know
- Pittsburgh snapped a three-game losing skid by upsetting No. 16 Virginia Tech 83-72 as 3.5-point home underdogs earlier this week. Panthers sophomore F Justin Champagnie is a contender for ACC Player of the Year as he leads the conference in points per game and rebounds per game and is second in player efficiency rating.
- Coincidentally, Virginia’s last loss came against No. 16 Virginia Tech Saturday when it got rolled 65-51, which ended a seven-game winning streak for the Cavaliers. But, Virginia got back on track in their last game by winning at NC State 64-57 and pushing as 7-point favorites.
- This has been a one-sided series since Pittsburgh joined the ACC in 2013 with Virginia being 9-1 overall and 7-2-1 ATS over that time span vs. the Panthers. The Cavaliers only won 59-56 and pushed as 3-point favorites, but their previous four wins over the Panthers were by at least 12 points.
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Pittsburgh at Virginia: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Virginia 74, Pittsburgh 60
Money line (ML)
PASS because while Virginia (-600) is the right side, but paying that much for a money line is a bad strategy. The implied win probability according to a -600 money line is 85.1%, and despite the head-to-head domination, Pittsburgh won a game in the past six meetings against Virginia, which is a 16.7% win rate.
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Against the spread (ATS)
Virginia cashes tickets for bettors, and it has the highest cover rate in the ACC in conference games since 2017. It’s pretty much fade the Cavaliers at your own peril.
Furthermore, Pittsburgh’s production is too top-heavy, and it’ll be too easy for a well-coached Virginia team to slow them down. And the Panthers aren’t a good enough shooting team to take advantage of Virginia’s 225th-ranked 3-point defense.
Also, the best aspect of Pittsburgh—its 35th-ranked offensive rebounding percentage—is muted by Virginia who holds opponent’s to the 13th-lowest offensive rebounding percentage.
GIMME VIRGINIA -9.5 (-115) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Whenever there’s a low-scoring Virginia game, it mostly always has to do with its snail’s pace and not the Cavaliers’ offensive execution. Virginia is only 191st in points per game, but it ranks sixth in offensive rating while having the slowest pace out of 347 charted Division-1 teams.
Plus my read on the 126.5 total in this year’s Pittsburgh-Virginia matchup being 17.5 points higher than last year’s total—which went Under by six points—is that bookmakers are disregarding last season’s result.
Their calculations are such, and I’m willing to side with the House in thinking that this Pittsburgh-Virginia game has better offensive execution than the last one. I lean OVER 126.5 (-115) for a half-unit.
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