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The 17th-ranked Pitt Panthers (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) and 20th-ranked SMU Mustangs (7-1, 4-0) meet Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Pitt vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Pitt has won all 7 games, including road wins against North Carolina and Cincinnati. It is also 6-1 against the spread (ATS), while scoring 28 or more points in 6 of its 7 outings. The defense has limited the opposition to 17 or fewer points in 3 of the past 4 games, with the Under cashing in 3 straight.
SMU turned the ball over 6 times last week at Duke, posting a minus-6 differential, but it still picked up a 28-27 OT win. However, it failed to cover as an 11-point favorite, halting a 4-0 ATS run. The Over has hit in 4 of the past 5 games for the Mustangs, too.
– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Pitt at SMU odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pitt +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | SMU -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Pitt +7.5 (-120) | SMU -7.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Pitt at SMU picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 29, Pitt 24
Moneyline
SMU (-300) will cost you 3 times your potential return, which is way too much risk for not enough reward, especially against a Pitt (+240) team which is unbeaten to date.
AVOID, and let’s look to the spread instead.
Against the spread
Play PITT +7.5 (-120), which is quite a lot of points for an unbeaten team to catch. The hook might be very important, too.
SMU -7.5 (+100) just turned it over 6 times last week at Duke, but found a way to win. If the Mustangs are that mistake-prone against the unbeaten Panthers, Pitt will leave the Metroplex with a convincing victory.
As it stands, the Panthers are a strong play, as they’re 6-1 ATS this season, including 2-0 ATS in both previous road contests.
On the flip side, the only loss for the Mustangs came at home Sept. 6 against BYU, 18-15, as 12.5-point favorites.
Over/Under
UNDER 56.5 (-105) is a decent play in this huge ACC clash with conference championship game implications.
The Over has hit in 4 of the past 5 games for SMU, so be careful. However, the SMU defense has allowed 18 or fewer points in 4 of the past 7 outings.
For Pitt, the Under is on a 3-0 roll, with the defense allowing just 14.0 points per game in the previous 2 contests. Don’t be surprised if this one is a lot more defensive than many expect.
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