The No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (2-3) try to stave off elimination Thursday when they host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (3-2) for Game 6 of the Western Conference first-round series. Tip-off at the Smoothie King Center is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Phoenix took control of this series with a 112-97 Game 5 win Tuesday thanks to incredible performances from SF Mikal Bridges and All-Star PG Chris Paul. Bridges scored a game-high 31 points on 70.6% shooting (4-for-4 from 3) and CP3 had 22 points and a game-high 11 assists with just 1 turnover.
Suns at Pelicans odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pelicans +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-108) | Pelicans +2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Suns at Pelicans key injuries
Suns
- SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out
Pelicans
- None
[tipico]
Suns at Pelicans picks and predictions
Prediction
Pelicans 106, Suns 101
Money line
LEAN PELICANS (+115) because I’m on them to win, but prefer the spread since I’ll take whatever points I can get with NOLA.
The Pelicans are significantly better in two of the four factors in this series (rebounding and free-throw attempt rates) and NOLA’s role players should step up with Game 6 at home.
Furthermore, Tipico Sportsbook’s betting splits indicate the professionals are backing the Pelicans while the public is taking the Suns. Roughly 90% of the bets placed are on Phoenix but whereas nearly 60% of the cash is on NOLA.
Since professionals wager put up more dough than your average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is generally considered the sharp side of the market.
Again, it’s only a LEAN to the PELICANS (+115) because NOLA’s spread is a sharper play.
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Against the spread
Definitely BET the PELICANS +2.5 (-112) instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis and there’s reverse line movement headed towards NOLA in the betting market.
According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the money is on the Suns -2.5 (-108) but the Pelicans are the pricier side and NOLA is even down to +2 at some sportsbooks.
I give the Pelicans the edge in this matchup the longer this series goes. NOLA is healthier and much more aggressive at crashing the glass and attacking the paint.
Phoenix relies too much on mid-range jumpers and CP3 brilliance. If the Suns’ shooters go cold or if Paul is less than amazing then the Pelicans should cruise past the Suns as they did in Game 4.
For the record, the PELICANS +2.5 (-112) is my favorite bet in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 213.5 (-110) because the defense will be ratcheted up in this elimination game and this is the third-slowest-paced series in the first round.
That said, it’s only a “lean” because 3 of the first 5 games of this series went Over the total and Suns-Pelicans has the second-worst combined defensive rating of any first-round series.
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