The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (1-1) visit the Smoothie King Center Friday for Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (1-1). Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Pelicans odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
New Orleans evened the series by upsetting Phoenix 125-114 in Game 2 Tuesday. Pelicans SF Brandon Ingram lit the Suns up for 37 points on 61.9% shooting, including 3-for-3 from behind the arc. He was also 8-for-8 from the foul line with 11 rebounds and 9 assists.
The major storyline from Game 2 was the injury to Suns All-Star SG Devin Booker, who exited in the third quarter with a hamstring issue after a 31-point first-half. Booker is expected to be sidelined for the rest of this series.
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Suns at Pelicans odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pelicans +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Pelicans +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 216.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Suns at Pelicans key injuries
Suns
- SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out
Pelicans
- PF Zion Williamson (foot) out
[tipico]
Suns at Pelicans picks and predictions
Prediction
Pelicans 112, Suns 107
Money line
LEAN PELICANS (+115) because New Orleans plus the points is a “sharper” play.
I also prefer to take the PELICANS TO WIN THE SERIES (+220) because the Suns (-319) are in real trouble without Booker.
Phoenix is a heck of a lot easier to defend without its best offensive player on the floor and NOLA’s length and defensive versatility will make it tough on the Suns and PG Chris Paul to execute their half-court offense. Also, CP3 is just 21-41 overall in his career on the road in the postseason.
More importantly, the Pelicans are outrebounding the Suns by 15 rebounds per game through the first 2 games and you cannot win a playoff series getting crushed on the glass this badly. In fact, New Orleans’ rebounding rate is more than double Phoenix’s in this series.
The Pelicans were 4th in offensive-rebounding rate during the regular season and 3rd in second-chance points per game (PPG) while the Suns were 21st in second-chance PPG allowed.
The Pelicans had the best fast-break defensive efficiency during the regular season, so I don’t see Phoenix having success in transition.
Finally, we are seeing the emergence of an elite wing scorer in Ingram and, now that Booker is out with an injury, Ingram is now the best player in this series.
It’s only a LEAN to the PELICANS (+115) because I’m fearful of a vintage CP3 performance in Phoenix’s first game without Booker and I prefer New Orleans’ spread.
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Against the spread
BET PELICANS +2.5 (-110).
I could see CP3 putting the Suns on his back for a clutch victory and New Orleans plus the points might come in handy.
This is my favorite wager in this game. Most of the wagered money is on the Suns, so I’d wait until closer to tip-off in hopes of getting a better price for New Orleans’ spread.
Over/Under
PASS since the total has been lowered from the 222-point look-ahead total, so we’d be getting the worst of the number with the Under.
I don’t like the Over since the Suns may slow down their tempo with Booker out and the Pelicans played at the 21st-fastest pace during the regular season.
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