The Philadelphia Phillies (66-64) and Washington Nationals (55-74) open a three-game NL East series on Monday. The first pitch in the series opener at Nationals Park is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Wheeler is 10-9 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 176 2/3 IP over 26 starts.
- In a Wednesday loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, Wheeler allowed 7 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits and no walks while striking out 10 across 8 IP. After posting a 2.97 ERA in his first five starts of the second half, the Phillies righty has gone 0-3 with a 6.53 ERA over his last three turns.
- Current Washington bats own an aggregate .822 OPS against him.
RHP Josiah Gray is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. Over seven appearances (six starts), Gray is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 36 IP.
- Coming off back-to-back starts in which he allowed 2 ER over 6 IP. Threw a season-high 91 pitches in his last start (Aug. 25 at Miami).
- Has been hurt by the long ball (3.0 home runs per 9 IP) but has benefited from a .217 batting average on balls in play.
Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Nationals +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+105) | Nationals +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Phillies 5, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
The Phillies hit the road after a six-game home stand (3-3). The trip for Philly is an ungainly one, sending the club to Washington, D.C., Miami and Milwaukee. The Phils are just 5-8 since Aug. 15, but they enter this series on a three-game win streak.
The Nationals return to D.C. after a nine-game road trip (3-6). Washington’s pitching since the break has been abysmal. The Nats have allowed 1.9 HR per game en route to posting a 5.63 ERA in their last 40 games.
On the season, the Phillies are 10-6 against the Nats. Over those games, Philadelphia is a plus-17 in run differential.
There is enough to question Wheeler on to make Gray and the Nats the leverage side here, but consider a PASS here and a play on the run line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Nationals look to be too aggressively priced on the money line and more of a fair proposition on the run line. Still, the strongest play in the game is on the Over. Consider a partial-unit bet on WASHINGTON +1.5 (-130).
Over/Under (O/U)
Both clubs are more productive against lefty pitchers, but there is some fade-both-starters energy in this matchup. Washington owns a .771 OPS at home, and the Nats have scored 5-plus runs in 7 of their last 10 at Nationals Park.
Mix in two struggling bullpens (August ERAs: Phils 4.88, Nats 5.26) and a hot, humid night in D.C., and make your play on the OVER 8.5 (-107).
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