The Philadelphia Phillies (20-17) vs. Washington Nationals (13-19) match up Thursday at 1:10 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 0.6 BB/9 in 45 1/3 IP over seven starts. Eflin has gone at least 6 IP in every start this season and has walked a total of just three batters. In his last three starts, he has recorded an outstanding 23/1 K/BB in 19 1/3 IP.
LHP Patrick Corbin is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. He is 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 29 1/3 IP over six starts. Corbin has had just one good start all year, which he tossed six shutout innings against St. Louis. In the two starts before that, he allowed 15 ER in 6 1/3 IP, and in three starts since has served up six homers with a 9/7 K/BB in 17 IP.
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Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Nationals +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Phillies 7, Nationals 3
Money line (ML)
Of all pitchers who have thrown 20 or more innings this season, Corbin is among the three worst in both ERA and FIP, at 7.36 and 7.81, respectively. While the Phillies have whiffed at the 3rd highest rate vs lefties, they are middle of the pack in terms of production (17th in wRC+, 15th in OPS).
Meanwhile, the Nationals do have OF Juan Soto back now, but he may not be enough to completely resurrect an offense that is 27th in wRC+ vs RHP as well as in runs per game. Lock in the PHILLIES -110.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Corbin has been a mess this season, as he leads the league in earned runs allowed, and his Statcast page is all blue. The Philadelphia offense is averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last five contests and should keep rolling against the struggling left-hander. The PHILLIES -1.5 (+150) are a solid value.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over has hit in four of Corbin’s six starts to this point, and there is little reason to believe he’s about to turn things around, given his poor skills. On the other side, Eflin is likely to deliver a pretty strong outing, but the Washington offense should still push across a few runs. Siding with OVER 8 (-115) is the smart play here.
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