The St. Louis Cardinals (45-40) host the Philadelphia Phillies (44-39) Friday at Busch Stadium in the opener of a 3-game series with the 1st pitch set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly is 6-4 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games including consecutive series victories vs. the Washinton Nationals and Cardinals.
St. Louis is 4-6 SU in the last 10 and hasn’t won a series since taking 2 of 3 at home vs. the Miami Marlins June 27-29.
The Phillies beat the Cardinals 2-1 in their 1st series this season and Philly outscored St. Louis 15-10 in that set.
Phillies at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Adam Wainwright
Wheeler is 7-4 with a 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 88 IP over 15 starts.
- Last start: Won 4-0 Sunday at home vs. the Cardinals with 7 scoreless IP, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 road splits: 2-2 with a 4.45 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 2 HR and 10.6 K/9 in 6 starts.
Wainwright is 6-6 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 96 2/3 IP over 16 starts.
- Last start: Lost 4-0 Sunday in Philadelphia with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 home splits: 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA (44 IP, 11 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2 HR and 8.8 K/9 in 7 starts.
Phillies at Cardinals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:21 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Cardinals +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Cardinals 2
Money line
BET the PHILLIES (-125) because the sharps are staking Philly while the public is backing the Cardinals (+102), Wheeler has been dominant recently and Philly’s lineup is a little more productive vs. right-handed pitching than St. Louis’s.
Nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Phillies whereas a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Cardinals according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors have much bigger units than your average Joe.
Wheeler grades higher than Wainwright in most advanced pitching metrics. Wainwright sits in the 30th percentile for expected ERA, 4th percentile for whiff rate and 43rd percentile in barrel rate, per Statcast. Also, Wheeler is 4-1 SU in his last 7 outings with a 1.90 ERA and 6 quality starts.
Finally, Philly’s lineup outranks St. Louis’s vs. right-handed pitching in several advanced hitting categories such as hard-hit rate (28.4-27.4%), wOBA (.316-.313) and ISO (.171-.149), according to FanGraphs.
BET to win 1 unit on the PHILLIES (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Philly’s edges over St. Louis are minimal and Phillies-Cardinals has a low total so if there are fewer runs expected to be scored then it’s harder to sprinkle on the favorite’s RL.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105) since both ballclubs have their ace on the mound, Phillies-Cardinals is 2-6 O/U in their last 8 meetings, Philly is 7-5 O/U as road favorites, St. Louis is 22-16-2 O/U at home and more cash is on the Under whereas more action is on the Over 7.5 (-120), per Pregame.com.
However, Philly’s ML is my favorite look in this game hence the LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) without a lot of conviction.
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