The Philadelphia Phillies (15-17) continue their 4-game series at the Los Angeles Dodgers (20-10) Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly held on for a 9-7 win in Thursday’s series opener after recovering from giving up a 6-run lead with a 2-run top of the 9th inning.
Los Angeles is 7-3 in the last 10 games but has dropped 3 of its past 4 games, including losing 2 of a 3-game set at the Pittsburgh Pirates earlier this week.
The Dodgers beat the Phillies 4-2 in last year’s season series, outscoring Philly 22-10 in the 6 games.
Phillies at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Walker Buehler
Gibson is 3-1 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 33 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Win vs. the New York Mets 3-2 Sunday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 12.29 FIP with a .286/.436/.633 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 15.0 K% and 92.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 60 plate appearances (PA).
Buehler is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 36 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Beat the Chicago Cubs 7-1 Sunday at Wrigley Field with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 5.09 FIP with a .285/.363/.503 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 24.3 K% and 89.9 mph EV in 37 PA.
Phillies at Dodgers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:43 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Dodgers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-117) | Dodgers -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Phillies at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 9, Phillies 3
Money line
PASS.
Los Angeles (-220) is just too pricey for a straight-up bet.
I could see including the Dodgers’ ML in a parlay with another similarly priced line for a better payout, but even that’s a sub-even wager.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET A HALF UNIT on the DODGERS -1.5 (-103) because they have a 3-phase edge in this matchup (hitting and starting and relief pitching), Buehler is their best starter and the Dodgers lineup has raked Phillies SP Gibson in the past.
Also, L.A.’s bullpen ranks 1st in both WHIP (0.95) and hard-hit rate (27.3%) and 5th in ERA (3.03), per FanGraphs. Philly’s bullpen is 25th in both ERA (4.29) and WHIP (1.36) and 21st in hard-hit rate (40.3).
TAKE DODGERS -1.5 (-103).
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+105).
Buehler is a Cy Young contender, the Under is 5-1 in Gibson’s 6 starts and the Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 Phillies-Dodgers meetings.
However, I prefer the Dodgers’ RL more than the Under.
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