The Colorado Rockies (7-13) meet the Philadelphia Phillies (10-10) for the rubber match of their three-game set at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philadelphia rebounded from a 5-4 loss in Game 1 to beat Colorado 7-5 in Game 2 to even the series.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
RHP Chase Anderson is on the mound for the Phillies. Anderson is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA (13 IP, 6 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 3 starts.
- Last outing: Loss with 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K’s in Colorado’s 2-0 loss to the San Francisco Giants Monday.
- Career vs. the Rockies: 4-3 with a 4.68 ERA (65 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.32 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 in 12 starts.
RHP Jon Gray is the projected starter for the Rockies. Gray is 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 4 starts.
- Last outing: Win in 6 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 6 K’s in Colorado’s 6-2 victory over the Houston Astros Tuesday.
- Career vs. the Phillies: 3-3 with a 4.14 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 in 7 starts.
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Phillies at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Rockies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Rockies -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 11.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Rockies 7, Phillies 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the ROCKIES (-110) for 1 unit because Gray is Colorado’s best starting pitcher, and Anderson is more of a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Statcast grades Gray out in the 89th percentile of barrel%, 83rd percentile of hard-hit rate and 85th percentile of expected slugging percentage.
Conversely, Anderson is in the 49th percentile of hard-hit rate, 17th percentile in expected slugging percentage, 18th percentile in expected wOBA and his numbers at Coors Field are subpar as well.
Anderson is 2-2 with a 6.66 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.60 WHIP and 7.0 K/9 in five career starts at Coors Field.
Also, the Phillies cannot put together a winning streak and are 0-6 in their last six games following a win.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the ROCKIES -1.5 (+145) for a one-fifth unit if at all because Colorado has a 16-13 run line (RL) record as a home favorite since the start of 2020 and Philadelphia has a winning RL record as a road dog over that span.
Furthermore, Colorado’s run line price is being steamed up because money is coming in on Philadelphia. So if you’re planning on betting the Rockies to win by two or more runs then wait until closer to the first pitch for a better price.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 11.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because the Rockies are 0-4 O/U in Gray’s starts this year and have gone Under the total in four straight prior to yesterday.
Additionally, according to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the money is on the Over in Phillies-Rockies and, as we all know, 90% of sports bettors don’t win.
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