The Philadelphia Phillies (41-42) play the Chicago Cubs (42-44) Wednesday in the third game of their four-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly picked up a 15-10 win Tuesday and has drilled Chicago over the first two games of this series by a combined score of 28-13 while extending the Cubs losing skid to 11 games.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-0.
RHP Zack Wheeler takes the mound for the Phillies. Wheeler is 6-4 with a 2.05 ERA (114 IP, 26 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 over 17 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K in Philadelphia’s 4-3 win over the San Diego Padres Friday.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 103 at-bats with a .243/.297/.417 slash line, 28/8 K/BB, 5 HR and 13 RBIs.
RHP Alec Mills is Chicago’s projected starter. Mills is 3-2 with a 4.85 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 across five starts and 12 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 9 K at the Cincinnati Reds Friday.
- 2021 home splits: 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 18 H, 3 BB and 9 K in one start and seven bullpen outings.
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Phillies at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Cubs +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Phillies 5, Cubs 1
Money line (ML)
GIMME the PHILLIES (-130) for 1 unit because they have a massive edge in the starting pitching matchup and Chicago’s bullpen has been raked recently.
Wheeler is playing in his first All-Star game next week and rightfully so. He ranks second in WAR, fourth in xFIP (2.74), seventh in K-BB% (25.7%) and third in hard-hit rate (29.7%) amongst all starters with at least 50 innings pitched. Also, Chicago’s lineup has the seventh-lowest hard-hit rate vs. RHP.
Furthermore, over the past two weeks, the Cubs relievers have the second-highest ERA, are giving up the most home runs per nine innings, have the worst left-on-base percentage and the worst hard-hit rate.
In addition, over that same time span, the Cubs hitters have the fifth-worst WAR while the Phillies batters are ninth in WAR.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Philly’s bullpen is worse than Chicago’s and has been performing nearly as terrible over the past couple of weeks.
And despite the Phillies crushing the Cubs in the first two games of the series, Philly is still just 3-8 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-2.7 run line margin.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a half unit because I think Wheeler ends his dominant first half on a high note and the presumed “sharp” money is backing the Under whereas the “public” is taking the Over.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the money is on the Under while nearly three-fourths of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically in sports gambling it’s wiser to follow the money, especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction of the public.
This is a good spot to “fade the market” and zag on the past two Phillies-Cubs meetings soaring Over the total.
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