The Philadelphia 76ers (24-17) head to South Beach Saturday to play the Miami Heat (27-15) at FTX Arena. The tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Both teams played Friday as the Sixers handled the Boston Celtics 111-99 as 3-point home favorites and the Heat took down the Atlanta Hawks 124-118 at home as 5-point favorites.
The Sixers are 5-1 straight-up (SU), 5-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U with the best non-garbage time net rating at a plus-14.0 and the eighth-best ATS margin at plus-3.6 over the last two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
The Heat are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS and 5-1 O/U with the fifth-best non-garbage time net rating at a plus-9.6 but the best ATS margin at plus-10.3 across that same span, per CTG.
The Heat upset the Sixers in Philly 101-96 as 8-point underdogs Dec. 15 in their first meeting this season. Miami was missing All-Stars F Jimmy Butler and C Bam Adebayo and its second-leading scorer, SG Tyler Herro, while Philly was at full health.
76ers at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:22 p.m. ET.
- Money line: 76ers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Heat -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): 76ers +2.5 (-107) | Heat -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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76ers at Heat key injuries
76ers
- SG Danny Green (hip) questionable
- SF Matisse Thybulle (shoulder) questionable
Heat (not officially submitted)
- C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
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76ers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 113, 76ers 109
Money line
BET the HEAT (-145) for 1 unit for a variety of reasons.
This is a better spot for the Heat who are 5-1 ATS at home versus teams with a winning record and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Sixers. These ATS trends are applicable since this game is priced as a coin-flip.
The Sixers are also 1-3 SU and ATS with a minus-7.6 adjusted net rating (CTG) when playing on zero rest days. More importantly, Miami performs much better than Philly versus quality competition.
The Heat are 10-5 SU with the second-best adjusted net rating versus teams in the top-10 of non-garbage time efficiency differential. They also have the best ATS margin versus top-10 teams at a plus-8.3 (CTG).
On the other hand, the Sixers are 3-6 SU versus top-10 teams with the 23rd-best adjusted net rating and the second-worst ATS margin at minus-8.6 (CTG).
The Heat are also a much better rebounding team. Miami outrebounds opponents 44.9-41.2 per game while the Sixers have a minus-per game rebounding differential at 45.3-42.1. More rebounds mean more possessions, which equals more points.
Butler played with the Sixers in 2018-19 and has a friendly rivalry with Philly big Joel Embiid. Since Butler went to South Beach the following season, the Heat are 4-1 SU when both Butler and Embiid are playing.
BET 1 unit on the HEAT (-145).
Against the spread
PASS even though I certainly think Miami wins by margin. However, there’s no point betting the Heat -2.5 (-115) when we can get their money line for just 30 cents on the dollar more.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 211.5 (-115) for a half-unit only because both teams play at a bottom-five pace and Philly is 0-6 O/U in the last six games as a road underdog.
That said, both teams have been shooting really well this month. Miami is second in effective field goal shooting (eFG%) in January and Philly ranks fourth in eFG%. The Under has also cashed in five of the last seven 76ers-Heat meetings.
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