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Scottie Scheffler was in the mix for what would’ve been a third win of the season Sunday at the 2023 BMW Championship.
With Viktor Hovland in the clubhouse lead at 17 under, Scheffler had a 26-foot putt for birdie on the 17th hole to tie the Norwegian, but instead three-putted for a disappointing bogey. That meant he had to hole-out from the fairway on No. 18 if he was to force a playoff with Hovland, who instead walked away with a two-shot win after Scheffler made par.
Scheffler was first in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Approach to Green and Tee to Green on the week. In a field of 50, he came in 38th in Strokes Gained: Putting, where he lost 1.891 shots to the field. Round up, and there’s the two shots that could’ve forced a playoff.
The 25-year-old’s week at Olympia Fields Country Club’s North Course in Illinois was obviously nothing to scoff at with scores of 66-69-64-66. It took a career low and course record (by Hovland) to beat him, after all. But his performance at the BMW highlights a trend that we’ve seen all season from the World No. 1: the game overall is tight, but the putter is too loose.
“The things that I’m working on right now I feel very excited about. I’m hitting a lot of good putts,” said Scheffler before the Open Championship in July while arguing his putting wasn’t a problem. “Pretty soon, a lot of those good putts will start falling in the middle of the hole instead of dodging around the side of it.”
That’s the kind of confidence that gets built up over four years of early success on the PGA Tour. In 110 starts, he’s racked up nine third-place showings, seven runner-up finishes and six wins with 91 made cuts. In 22 events this year alone, Scheffler didn’t miss a single cut and was in the top 25 in 20 of those starts, with 16 top 10s and a pair of wins and runners-up.
The fact he’s been so successful with such below-average performance on the greens makes Scheffler’s start to his professional career all the more impressive.
Here’s a look at Scheffler’s putting stats over his four years on the PGA Tour.
Scottie’s struggles
Scheffler had a bounce-back season last year in SG: Putting, but even then he was only ranked 58th and still managed four wins. This year is his worst SG: Putting on Tour since the 2019-20 season, not to mention his total putting ranking has triple digits for the fourth consecutive season. On top of that, his overall putting average (103rd) has gotten worse the last two seasons.
His one-putt percentage is drastically different (67th to 139th this year), which comes as a tough look seeing as he leads the Tour in SG: Approach to Green and greens in regulation and sits 12th in proximity to the hole.
The only distance putting category where Scheffler is inside the top 40 this year is putts from 25 feet or farther. Over the last three years he was top 40 in at least three distance categories.
| Stat | 2022-23 ranking | 2021-22 ranking | 2020-21 ranking | 2019-20 ranking |
| SG: Putting | 145 | 58 | 107 | 117 |
| Total putting | 115 | 120 | 101 | 114 |
| Overall putting average | 103 | 82 | 43 | 56 |
| One-putt percentage | 139 | 67 | 58 | 57 |
| Putting from 20-25 feet | 124 | 5 | 40 | 68 |
| Putting from 10-15 feet | 170 | 9 | 160 | 52 |
| Putting inside 10 feet | 135 | 155 | 81 | 161 |
| Putting from 10 feet | 183 | 25 | 91 | 144 |
| Putting from 8 feet | 174 | 159 | 163 | 121 |
| Putting from 5 feet | 164 | 174 | 62 | 75 |
| Putting from 4-8 feet | 172 | 180 | 102 | 126 |
| Putting from 4 feet | 131 | 107 | 142 | 171 |
Scottie’s successes
Despite some glaring concerns, Scheffler comes in 24th in putting average and 32nd in birdie or better conversion percentage (though both of those are worse than years prior). The 2022 Masters champion is third in birdie average and first in scoring average. Scary thought? He should be scoring even more.
The stats also show that Scheffler is putting significantly better in the final round compared to the first three, which hasn’t been the case over the years.
He’s down to 62nd in putts per final round from 122 and 124 in the last two years, but with that said, his numbers have inflated across the board from Thursday-Saturday.
Aside from his three-jack at the 17th on Sunday, Scheffler has done well to minimize his three-putt percentage and now ranks 13th on Tour.
| Stat | 2022-23 ranking | 2021-22 ranking | 2020-21 ranking | 2019-20 ranking |
| Putting average | 24 | 4 | 10 | 36 |
| Birdie or better conversion % | 32 | 8 | 12 | 13 |
| Putts per round total | 103 | 82 | 43 | 57 |
| Putts per round 1 | 87 | 77 | 17 | 11 |
| Putts per round 2 | 145 | 90 | 52 | 21 |
| Putts per round 3 | 129 | 71 | 89 | 108 |
| Putts per round 4 | 62 | 122 | 124 | 162 |
| 3-putt avoidance | 13 | 80 | 49 | 113 |
| Putting from less than 25 feet | 39 | 50 | 33 | 14 |
| Putting from 15-20 feet | 56 | 145 | 47 | 25 |
| Putting from 9 feet | 50 | 120 | 58 | 146 |
| Putting from 7 feet | 70 | 143 | 56 | 100 |
| Putting from 6 feet | 84 | 159 | 129 | 167 |
| Putting from 3 feet | 77 | 132 | 42 | 169 |
It’s difficult to pick apart the game of a player who just made a record $21 million on the course and has a firm hold of the world No. 1 ranking. But with that skill and success comes scrutiny when you don’t perform at your best. Statistically speaking, Scheffler’s never been a great putter, and this season has been worse on the greens than the previous three. It’s also arguably his best season overall on Tour.
Just imagine the level of golf we’d be seeing if a few more putts fell.
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Statistics via the PGA Tour.