Pro Football Focus used their crunched numbers and simulated the 2020 NFL season 10,000 times to see what could possible happen during the upcoming year. Their findings from those simulations gave some insight to a potentially close race to the finish line in the AFC East.
The Bills finished these simulations with an average of 7.9 wins next season. While the lowest among all division winners, by comparison, the Bills win the AFC East title in this battle, but as mentioned, it’s awfully close.
But close in a unique way.
Despite losing quarterback Tom Brady this offseason, the Patriots still have a stout defense, so seeing them land in second place in PFF’s simulation isn’t a shock. Overall, the Pats averaged 7.7 wins. But it’s not just the Patriots, the entire AFC East goes down as the tightest battle, from top-to-bottom.
The Bills, in first, are above the Patriots, Dolphins (7.4) and Jets (7.0). From first to last place, a difference of less than one win, makes the Bills-Jets the closest first-to-last place finishes in PFF’s simulations for the entire NFL.
The next closest comes in the NFC North. There, the Packers land at 8.7 wins, edging out the Lions by 1.3 wins (7.4). For much of the rest of the NFL, division winners and bottom-feeders are mostly separated by about two wins.
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