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Expectations are high for the New Orleans Saints, and for good reason. They’ve built one of the strongest rosters (on paper) in recent memory, led by a Hall of Fame-bound quarterback in Drew Brees and a host of younger all-world talents like wide receiver Michael Thomas, defensive end Cameron Jordan, and running back Alvin Kamara.
But what exactly is the ceiling for this Saints team? Does it have what it takes to go all the way? On the other hand, what is their floor — how badly could things possibly go? To find out, the team at Pro Football Focus ran a series of simulations to see where each team is likeliest to end up. Here’s what PFF’s Ben Linsley wrote about the worst-case scenario for the Saints, which sees them going 7-9 in a disappointing effort:
How they get there:Drew Brees finally steps down from the elite tier at quarterback, and his arm decides to call it quits. That’s the only way I see this team falling below .500 given how deep the roster is from top to bottom. Sure, they have Jameis Winston to turn to, but the quick passing game to the short and intermediate areas of the field, which has been their bread and butter with Brees behind center, doesn’t necessarily align with Winston’s caution-to-the-wind, air-it-out style. If the Saints offense is forced to make that transition midseason, it could lead to disappointing results for one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.
Funnily enough, the best possible scenario for the Saints has them finishing with a 12-4 record. That’s one less win than they earned in each of the last two seasons, having gone 13-3 in subsequent years for the first time in Saints history. But whatever the specifics, the Saints are expected to win double-digit games comfortably this year after a dynamite offseason. Linsley wrote:
How they get there: Brees remains as one of the game’s elite quarterbacks for one more season, and veteran additions like Emmanuel Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins add depth to an already talented roster. What Michael Thomas was able to do last season was impressive, but I’m sure New Orleans will be happy to have someone like Sanders share the load with him. On defense, Janoris Jenkins continues to play as well as he did after signing with the Saints late in the 2019 season, and Malcolm Jenkins gives the side another versatile safety to pair with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, providing the team with plenty of options when it comes to filling the box and covering slot receivers.
We’ll see where the Saints end up come January, but these aren’t a terrible range of options to work with. Fans have gone through 7-9 seasons before, which would be disappointing for sure, but that isn’t exactly breaking new ground. With possible heirs to Brees like Winston and Taysom Hill already in the building, and much of the team’s young talent signed on for the long haul, a misstep in 2020 wouldn’t be the end of their story.
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