Penn State moved up one spot in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index after Week 3. The Nittany Lions are now ranked no. 6 in the most recent FPI from ESPN. Penn State swapped spots with Texas, with the Longhorns dropping one spot after some struggles at home against Wyoming this past weekend.
That swap in the rankings is interesting given that Texas has a signature road win at Alabama in very recent memory (Week 2), which is far superior to any win under Penn State’s belt so far. But perhaps this is more of a reflection of the downward trend of Alabama, which fell three spots in this week’s FPI rankings. But Alabama’s drop of three spots still has the Crimson Tide ranked two spots ahead of Penn State at no.4.
Ohio State climbed one spot in the FPI rankings this week up to no. 1 overall. Behind them is Oklahoma, which moved up six spots to no. 2, passing Penn State and a number of other schools along the way including defending national champion Georgia (the Bulldogs are no. 3).
Penn State’s projected record right now according to the FPI metrics comes out to 10.5-1.7. That is good enough for the Big Ten’s second-best projected win total behind only Ohio State. Michigan (down four spots to no. 14) is currently projected to finish third in the Big Ten East.
Ohio State is the division favorite with a 62.4% chance of winning the Big Ten East. Penn State is next in line with a 25.9% chance, followed by Michigan with a 10.9% chance to win the East for a third consecutive season.
The new FPI gives Penn State a 22.1% chance of winning the Big Ten championship. Ohio State has a 57.0% chance and Michigan has an 8.5% chance.
Clearly, the ESPN FPI rankings are trending much more in favor of Penn State than they are for Michigan at the moment. Looking ahead to Penn State’s home game with Michigan, the current FPI projections give Penn State a 69.0% chance of winning against the Wolverines. Penn State is the overwhelming projected favorite in each of Penn State’s remaining games except for one road game at Ohio State.
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