The No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes (16-6, 10-5 in Big Ten) host the Penn State Nittany Lions (7-11, 4-10) Sunday in a conference clash at the Carver-Hawkeye Arena for a 5 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Penn State-Iowa odds and lines, with NCAA college basketball picks and predictions.
Ratings courtesy of Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Penn State at Iowa: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Penn State +525 (bet $100 to win $525) | Iowa -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Penn State +11.5 (-110) | Iowa -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 147.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Penn State at Iowa: Three things to know
- After a bumpy mid-January through the first week of February Iowa has gotten on track by winning and covering against three straight Big Ten foes. The Hawkeyes have improved to a 12-9 ATS record and 12 of their 22 games going Over.
- Penn State has struggled this month, going 1-4 overall and 2-3 ATS including three straight losses entering Sunday. Over those five games, the Nittany Lions are shooting 36.4% from the field and 28.7% from three.
- Each team won and covered at home in last season’s series but the Hawkeyes have won two of the past three meetings. Iowa C Luka Garza has put up at least 22 points and 12 rebounds in those three games.
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Penn State at Iowa: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Iowa 84, Penn State 65
Money line (ML)
PASS since Iowa is the right side but no way I’d lay -750 with any team in a regular-season conference game or any basketball game for that matter.
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Against the spread (ATS)
This is a great spot for IOWA -11.5 (-110) for several reasons.
First, the Hawkeyes finish their weeks strong, covering nine of their previous 10 Sunday games. Second, the home team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight Penn State-Iowa games. Third, since the beginning of last season, the Hawkeyes have covered 73.1% of their games as a home favorite with a plus-15.2-point average margin.
Furthermore, don’t know how Penn State gets stops against Iowa. The Nittany Lions are 328th in defensive 2-point field goal percentage and 155th in opponent’s 3-point attempt rate.
While Garza can feast against Penn State’s weak interior defense which gives wide-open looks for an Iowa team that has the 3rd-best 3-point percentage in the nation.
Also, according to Hoop-Math.com, Iowa has the 32nd-highest effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in transition and Penn State is 302nd in defensive eFG% on transition attempts.
BET IOWA -11.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Hawkeyes would need to shoulder too much of the scoring burden for the Over to cash in this game. If Iowa is going to cover as double-digit favorites, it’ll need to have this game padded away with several minutes left on the clock so the scoring could come to a screeching halt.
TAKE UNDER 157.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit.
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