Patriots vs. Cowboys: Betting odds, analysis and prediction

The New England Patriots’ long-awaited return to Gillette Stadium comes with a rare and eagerly anticipated clash with the Dallas Cowboys.

The battle for the title of America’s Team takes center stage on Sunday when the New England Patriots return to Gillette stadium for a head-to-head showdown with the Dallas Cowboys.

Move over Deontay Wilder, this is the real heavyweight fight of the weekend.

The Patriots hope the long-awaited return of left tackle Isaiah Wynn will finally settle down a struggling offense that has made quarterback Tom Brady the unhappiest man in the room. Never mind the fact that the team is 9-1 and in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture. Brady has been around long enough to know what a championship offense looks like, but even a blind man could see this isn’t it.

The bright side is he won’t have to stand toe-to-toe with the No. 1-ranked defense like Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. There were too many skeptics ready to jump the gun when the Patriots got rolled by the Baltimore Ravens. Then they went on the road and held the Philadelphia Eagles to 10 points after shutting them out for the entire second half of the game. It’s safe to say there’s nothing imaginary about The Boogeymen.

The Patriots will enter this marquee match-up with the Cowboys as -5.5 favorites with the over/under being 46.5.

Why you should pick the Patriots

Gillette Stadium has long been the NFL’s version of the Upside Down world for opposing quarterbacks. There is a long list of great players that have looked strangely ordinary when stepping onto the field against what has typically been a subpar defense.

But not this year.

The Patriots are at home and spearheaded by a defense that could be mentioned among the all-time great units when everything is said and done. It is expected to be a cold, rainy mess of a November Sunday in Foxborough to remind Prescott and the Cowboys what outdoor football really feels like.

There isn’t one signature win from the Cowboys on the road this season. Quite the contrary, they’ve had some ugly showings in losses to the New York Jets and a New Orleans Saints team without Drew Brees at quarterback. It took a herculean effort from Prescott just to carry them past a Detroit Lions team with Jeff Driskel at quarterback last week.

The Patriots should finally be able to get the running game going with Wynn back in at left tackle. For all of the talk about Brady’s lack of receiving targets, the key that unlocked the team’s Super Bowl run last season was dominating at the line of scrimmage and handing the ball off to running back Sony Michel.

Why you should pick the Cowboys

Leighton Vander Esch being ruled out of this game with a neck injury is a huge loss for the Cowboys, but the sputtering Patriots offense hasn’t looked like much of a threat since their Week 2 win over the Miami Dolphins. Those were the good, old days when the team had Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett at receiver.

They’ll likely just have Edelman on Sunday.

At least from a Patriots perspective, the Brown saga seems to be dead in the water, and Gordon is now catching passes from Russell Wilson in a Seattle Seahawks uniform. Dorsett still hasn’t been cleared from concussion protocol, and Mohamed Sanu, the team’s “big-ticket” free agent option, is hobbled with an ankle injury. Throw a frustrated Brady into the mix, and things could get bad on Sunday.

The Cowboys could bludgeon a generous Patriots defensive front with running back Ezekiel Elliott coming out of the backfield. He’ll certainly provide a much stiffer test than they saw with Miles Sanders and the Eagles. We’ve also seen the Patriots defense struggle against the rushing attack in games against the Ravens and Cleveland Browns.

Elliott has the potential to setup the necessary body blows for Prescott to land the knockout over the top with receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.

Trends

Via Covers.com

  • Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after earning more than 350 total yards in the previous game.
  • Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after earning more than 250 yards passing in the previous game.
  • Cowboys are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring over 30 points in the previous game.

Prediction

The smart pick is the Cowboys and the under on Sunday.

Brady’s top receivers could be Edelman, Jakobi Meyers and N’Keal Harry against a Cowboys defense that ranks seventh in yards allowed this season. Meyers is an undrafted rookie that worked his way onto the team, and Harry is a rookie first-round draft pick only playing in his second NFL game. The degree of difficulty for Brady and company is reaching asinine levels of ridiculous.

Foxborough serving as the backdrop and the Patriots’ terrifying defense wouldn’t give me much confidence in picking the Cowboys to outright win this game, but they are good enough to keep it closer than a touchdown.

Wynn being back on the field isn’t going to magically snap the Patriots back into being a dominate offense again. The Cowboys will find some success with their running attack in a game where I can see them coming away with at least two touchdowns. It won’t be the air raid we’ve seen from them in previous weeks, but they’ll at least move the ball enough to be competitive.

The resourceful Patriots will ultimately figure out a way to win at home, but I’m still taking the Cowboys and the points on Sunday.

 

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.