Since the start of the 2018 NFL season, when Patrick Mahomes took over as the Chiefs starting quarterback, there have been 484 instances of a team failing to score at least 23 points in a game.
Of those 484 games, the Chiefs accounted for only one of them.
That came earlier this season when the Colts held them to 13 points on Sunday Night Football. I should mention the Chiefs were missing their starting left tackle and their two best wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, were out with injuries. So it’s not hyperbole to say that no defense has been able to slow down the Chiefs offense we’ll be seeing two weeks from now in Super Bowl 54.
Then again, this Chiefs offense has never seen a defense like the one it will face in Miami. There was the game against the Patriots’ top-ranked defense earlier this season — the Chiefs put up 23 in a loss — but the 49ers will present a far different challenge. Unlike New England, San Francisco is able to generate consistent pressure with a standard four-man rush. And in Fred Warner and Kwon Alexander, the 49ers also have elite athleticism at the second level, which will help them deal with all of the crossing routes the Chiefs run. The secondary, led by a resurgent Richard Sherman, finished second in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades and limited opposing offenses to a league-low 34 passes going for 20 or more yards.
The 49ers have constructed the perfect defense to stop today’s pass-happy offenses. So that begs the question, If this defense can’t stop these Chiefs … can anyone?
That’s a serious question. If the 49ers are just the latest speed bump on Mahomes’ destruction tour of the NFL, it’s going to be a terrible sign for the rest of the league’s defenses, many of which do not feature a bunch of first-round talents on the defensive line, a rangy pair of smart linebackers and a good secondary. We’re approaching Avengers-versus-Thanos territory here (if the story ended after the first movie). The Niners have put together the earth’s mightiest defense, but does it matter if Mahomes can drop 30 points on a team with just the snap of his fingers? That’s basically what happened in the second quarter of the Texans game, right?
This is where the Colts raise their hands and ask if I’ve forgotten about them. Well, no, I haven’t; I’m just not sure how meaningful or instructive that random game in October is right now. Following that game, we started hearing the “blueprint” talk after Indy had gone against type and played mostly man coverage. That talk was silly, of course. It ignored the fact that EVERY defense in the league would play man coverage against the Chiefs (or any offense for that matter) if it could. It also ignored the fact that Hill and Watkins missing the game imbued the Colts with the confidence to play man-to-man all game. Indy pressuring Mahomes on over 42% of his dropbacks without blitzing — only the Patriots pressured him more but they blitzed more often — also helped the cause. It’s much easier to cover Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson man-to-man than Hill and Watkins, and defenders are much more liable to turn-style Cam Ervin than usual starting left tackle Eric Fisher.
That brings us back to the 49ers. We know how good that defensive line is with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead forming the best four-man pass rush in the NFL. The secondary is known for its zone coverages, but it’s also been very good when playing man coverage this season. Opposing passing offenses put together a success rate of 42% against the 49ers’ man coverages. That’s tied for the fifth-lowest in the league, per Sports Info Solutions. And when the 49ers played Cover 1 — the NFL’s most common man coverage — their sack rate jumped to a ridiculous 14.3%. That not only led the league but no other team was even over 10%.
That remarkable performance we saw from the Colts defense in the upset over the Chiefs? Yeah, that’s essentially the standard for this 49ers defense, which is now fully healthy for the first time since October, so it’s more than capable of replicating what the Colts did back in October.
If you were designing a defense to stop Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game, it would look awfully similar to the one in San Francisco. The pass rush depth, the athletic linebackers, the stingy secondary … it’s all there. But what happens if Kansas City runs through it like all the other defenses this offense has left in its wake?
Where do we go from there? When suffocating coverage and consistent pressure on the quarterback fails, what else do defenses have?
Nothing, really.
The 49ers defense isn’t just playing for a Super Bowl. The fate of NFL defenses — at least when they are going up against the Chiefs — could very well be at stake in Miami. If San Francisco can provide some resistance, it will provide the other 30 defenses with at least a sliver of hope.
If not … well, they’re all doomed for the foreseeable future.
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