Things won’t truly open up and be more consistent for the Green Bay Packers on offense until they start becoming more effective on downfield pass attempts.
It’s not that the Packers haven’t been willing to push the ball downfield, in fact, Jordan Love ranks third in attempts of 20-plus yards. However, he’s completed just nine of those passes, ranking 33rd out of 35 quarterbacks in completion percentage, and has thrown four interceptions on such passes, the second-most in football.
“A lot of it, obviously, is timing and just making those throws at the right time,” said offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich about the Packers deep ball issues. “Speeding up your drops and things like that. Wideouts, maybe, not giving up on routes. Making sure they’re pressing it and running hard. So there’s a lot of timing that comes into play with all those routes that we just got to make sure we do a better job.”
Green Bay’s inability to connect on these passes has a negative trickle-down effect to the rest of the offense. In addition to not being able to generate chunk plays, which often lead to scores, defenses just don’t fear that aspect of the Packers’ offense. This leads to them playing closer to the line of scrimmage, which makes moving the ball on the ground, over the middle, and in the quick passing game more difficult, in part because there is just less space for the offense to operate within.
The challenging aspect of all of this is that the Packers find themselves in a real chicken or the egg situation. Because they can’t connect on the deep ball, defenses are playing closer to the line of scrimmage. But because Green Bay doesn’t have a run game to lean that can set up play-action or a quick game that has had YAC potential, defenses don’t overreact either, which can lead to coverage breakdowns and those big play opportunities. Instead, defenses are able to be patient, diagnose what is actually taking place, and go from there.
“Obviously, we haven’t found a specific solution to it,” said Christian Watson on Wednesday. “I feel like it’s come down to consistency in execution in all phases. The more we can open up our run game, the more we can open up the quick game and stuff like that. The more it will open up the dropback and play-action stuff. We’ve just got to find a way to be a little more consistent and well-rounded.”
To put a bow on all of this, the run game and quick passing games will help create downfield opportunities, but finding success in those areas is more difficult because teams play closer to the line of scrimmage due to the Packers’ ineffectiveness of the deep ball. You can see how this offense is stuck in a rock and a hard place right now.
What the Packers are currently experiencing in this regard isn’t all that different from last season. For the first nine games of the season, the Packers were not an effective downfield passing offense and dealt with many of the same issues they’re currently facing. However, not coincidentally, things began to open up for the offense in Week 10 and beyond, which also just happened to be the week that Watson had 107 yards on four receptions with three touchdowns against Dallas.
Compared to last year, the Packers have more big play potential on this year’s offense, with players like Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed, and their elite speed. But what this offense needs is for Watson to find that spark to really help open up opportunities for the rest of the offense. With a downfield presence, the spacing underneath improves, which creates more opportunities in the run game, over the middle, or on quick throws.
After the start of Watson’s 2023 season was derailed by a hamstring injury, since returning, he has caught only 11-of-24 passes at 16.0 yards per catch with a touchdown. He is also 0-for-8 in contested catch situations, two of which came in the end zone last week against Minnesota.
“Right now,” Watson said via Packers News, “I feel like it’s almost a prayer when I try to make a play. The ball is in the air, and I haven’t had the success I want to have throughout the game, and it’s like, ‘I’ve got to make this play. A lot of pressure on it.’ If I can just go out there and play me, I think the ball will more so just fall into place, instead of just hoping and praying.”
As we saw last season, the tides can turn quite quickly in this regard. But with all of the miscues on offense – many self-inflicted – how close the Packers actually are to connecting on these passes relatively consistently remains to be seen. However, what we do know is that the overall consistency and productivity of this offense isn’t going to improve until the deep ball becomes a bigger factor.