The Green Bay Packers will take four important strengths into Sunday’s NFC Championship Game against the San Francisco 49ers, and Matt LaFleur’s team will likely need all four to show up for the Packers to advance to the Super Bowl.
Let’s run down the four strengths:
Pass-rush: The Packers led the NFL in pressure rate during the regular season. Za’Darius Smith had the most total pressures and quarterback hits, highest overall pressure rate and most expected sacks in the league despite being double-teamed at a higher rate than any other edge rusher. He’s an elite disruptor. Preston Smith now has 14 sacks, including eight on third down, in 17 games. He had a pair of sacks Sunday, including a huge takedown of Russell Wison on third down late in the fourth. Kenny Clark had the second-highest number of pressures among NFL interior defenders. He had 5.5 sacks in his last five games. The Packers sacked Wilson five times and probably should have sacked him on at least five other dropbacks on Sunday.
Pass-protection: The Packers had the highest pass-blocking win rate among NFL offensive lines, per ESPN. The group is solid across the board, book-ended by two stud offensive tackles and glued together by the cohesion established over 17 games with essentially the same starting five. Jared Veldheer provides a quality backup at offensive tackle. Left tackle David Bakhtiari, a four-time All-Pro, is back to eliminating edge rushers. Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins and Corey Linsley are each among the best at their respective position in pass-blocking win rate. Aaron Rodgers can stress the group by holding onto the football, but it collectively wins at a higher rate than any other in the NFL.
Turnover margin: The Packers ranked third in the NFL with a turnover differential of +12. They were seventh in takeaways (25) and second in giveaways (13), won all 12 games in which they produced at least one takeaway and led the NFL in games without a turnover (9). Aaron Rodgers threw only four interceptions, while the defense was third in the NFL with 17 picks. Nine different players intercepted passes for Mike Pettine’s defense.
Red zone: The Packers finished in the top 10 in the red zone on both offense and defense. The offense scored touchdowns on 64 percent of red-zone trips (eighth), while the defense allowed touchdowns on just 50 percent of red-zone trips (sixth). Aaron Jones scored an NFL-high 16 rushing touchdowns in the red zone, while the defense had five takeaways inside the 20.
Why do these advantages matter for Sunday’s rematch?
Pass-rush: The Packers have to affect the 49ers passing game with pressure. Jimmy Garoppolo, who is nowhere near as elusive as Russell Wilson, will make mistakes and provide turnover opportunities if the pocket is consistently disrupted. Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark must exert their star power.
Pass protection: The 49ers have the best defensive front in football. Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, DeForest Bucker and Dee Ford can all create havoc. Protecting Aaron Rodgers will be vital, especially on third down and in other obvious passing situations. The 49ers can wreck the game with their pass-rush alone.
Turnover margin: Winning in San Francisco will likely require at least one or two takeaways. The Packers have to steal a couple of possessions and give themselves a few short fields. And the offense can’t afford any game-breaking giveaways, like the fumble on the first drive of the first meeting that set up an early touchdown. Note: the 49ers have turned it over 25 times in 17 games.
Red zone: The 49ers ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in both red-zone offense and defense. Statistically, the Packers should have the advantage inside the 20, but it must translate to the field. They need to convert scoring opportunities into seven points and save as many points as possible on defense. A bend-but-don’t-break defense can work if the offense holds up its end of the bargain. The Packers were 3-for-3 scoring touchdowns against the Seahawks but also 3-for-3 giving up touchdowns.
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