The Pacific Tigers (13-16, 6-8 WCC) will try to go on the road and take down the conference leading Saint Mary’s Gaels (24-5, 13-1) in University Credit Union Pavilion Thursday at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Pacific vs. Saint Mary’s odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
These teams have not played over the last 2 years. So, this will be a strange matchup for both squads getting to know each other.
The Gaels have been stellar so far this season, though. Despite not being ranked in the top 25 of the coaches poll, the Gaels are ranked 8th in the NET ranks – the NCAA ranks to determine the best teams for the season based on metrics.
While a win against an overmatched Pacific will not boost this rank, a loss will hurt them in both the tournament seeding and in hoping to fend off Gonzaga, who resides just 1 game back in the conference.
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Pacific at Saint Mary’s odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pacific +875 (bet $100 to win $875) | Saint Mary’s -2500 (bet $2,500 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pacific +19.5 (-115) | Saint Mary’s -19.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pacific at Saint Mary’s picks and predictions
Prediction
Saint Mary’s 75, Pacific 60
Moneyline
PASS.
While Pacific is better on the road (7-6) than it is at home (6-10), this is still not a game I am willing to bet on them to win.
Saint Mary’s has been the best team in the West Coast Conference and are also 15-2 at home this season. With this in mind, and with the Gaels being -2500, I will not be playing either side.
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Against the spread
Take PACIFIC +19.5 (-115)
While the Tigers are not a threat to win, keeping a lower scoring game within 20 points is another thing entirely.
Pacific, which averages 76.6 points, will be taking on a 5th-ranked Saint Mary’s defense allowing only 58.9 points.
On the other end, the Gaels have only averaged 71.6 points, and will be about the same Thursday.
The Tigers have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss and also in games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Saint Mary’s for its part, have failed to cover in 5 of 6 games coming off a win. This is a mid-week letdown spot for the Gaels who could be looking past the Tigers and towards their road matchup with Gonzaga on Saturday.
Over/Under
Take UNDER 137.5 (-110)
With the 5th-ranked defense in the nation, the Gaels will be able to use the home-court atmosphere to keep this game at its own favored pace. Slow.
Saint Mary’s has gone Under the total in 5 of 6 home games against teams with a winning road record.
If this game goes as planned, and Saint Mary’s stifles the Tigers, this will easily hit the Under. The only way this game is going to get to the Over is if the Gaels got to 80 by themselves. I do not see it.
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