The second-seeded UCLA Bruins (24-6) clash with the third-seeded USC Trojans (26-6) in the third round of the Pac-12 Tournament Friday. Tip-off from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is scheduled for 11:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the USC vs. UCLA odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
UCLA is coming off a 75-65 win over seventh-seeded Washington State in the second round, covering as an 8.5-point favorite.
The Bruins against the spread (ATS) record is 16-13-1 on the year, and they split their two meetings with the Trojans. USC, however, is 2-0 ATS in those matchups.
The third-seeded USC won at home 67-64, covering as a 4.5-point underdog, and lost 75-68 on the road, covering as a 7.5-point underdog in those two meetings. While they’ve played UCLA well despite being just 15-17 ATS on the season.
The Trojans failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites in their 65-61 win over sixth-seeded Washington. That has pushed their neutral-court record to 4-0 straight up.
USC finished the season No.21 while UCLA was No. 13 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
USC vs. UCLA odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:24 p.m. ET.
- Money line: USC +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | UCLA -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): USC +6.5 (-120) | UCLA -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 133.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
[tipico]
USC vs. UCLA odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
UCLA 71, USC 66
Money line
PASS.
I don’t think USC finds a way to beat UCLA for a second time, especially with UCLA’s many weapons clicking at the right time. However, UCLA (-270) in a second- versus third-seed match is also unplayable.
Against the spread
LEAN USC +6.5 (-120).
UCLA is playing quality basketball, and it should be able to make a run in March. However, USC has covered both times these two sides have met this season and have the defensive aptitude to keep it close.
F Isaiah Mobley leads the team offensively, averaging 14.4 points per game, but defensive play is the identity of the Trojans. They rank 14th in opponents’ field goal percentage, holding teams to 38.9% shooting.
USC has also been far better ATS against ranked opponents, holding a Pac-12-best 3-1 ATS record compared to UCLA’s 2-4 ATS record against ranked opponents.
A 6.5-point spread seems a bit too much for a team that’s covered well and dominated defensively.
Over/Under
BET on the OVER 133.5 (-115).
While USC is elite defensively, which certainly helps drag this total down, UCLA has scored 75 or more in four straight games and put up 75 on USC to close the regular season.
They shot 30% from the field and still managed 67 points in the first meeting, failing to hit the over with it at 136 in that battle. Even if UCLA shoots below its 44.9% average, it should be able to eclipse 68.
USC is 11-9-1 O/U in conference games. On the other side, UCLA has hit 4 straight overs.
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