After five weeks of the 2023 college football season, ESPN’s FPI is very high on the Oregon Ducks, giving Dan Lanning’s program a nearly 40% chance to win the conference and a 20% chance to make the College Football Playoffs.
Oregon’s FPI of 23.8 ranks sixth best in the country and is only one of two Pac-12 teams to be ranked in the top 10. Also ranked inside the top 10 nationally is the Washington Huskies, who is ranked ninth nationally with a 21.2% chance to win the conference and an 8.8% chance to make the CFP.
USC is off to a 5-0 start, including 3-0 in conference play, and has the 12th best FPI nationally but just a 13.8% chance to win the conference and just a 5.7% chance to make the CFP according to the FPI.
The only other program ranked inside the FPI’s top 25 is the Oregon State Beavers who are 4-1 and are coming off an upset win over the Utah Utes last Friday. The Beavers alongside Washington State notably still do not know their fate for the 2024 season and beyond when it comes to conference affiliation.
Here’s how ESPN’s FPI views the rest of the Pac-12’s programs entering week six of the season.
| TEAM | W-L | CONF W-L | FPI | WIN CONF. % | Make Playoff % |
| Oregon | 5-0 | 2-0 | 23.8 (6) | 39.9% | 19.7% |
| Washington | 5-0 | 2-0 | 19.9 (9) | 21.2% | 8.8% |
| USC | 5-0 | 3-0 | 19.3 (12) | 13.8% | 5.7% |
| Oregon State | 4-1 | 1-1 | 12.8 (20) | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Utah | 4-1 | 1-1 | 10.3 (26) | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| UCLA | 3-1 | 0-1 | 9.6 (29) | 0.1% | 0 |
| Washington State | 4-0 | 1-0 | 6.4 (39) | 0.2% | 0 |
| California | 3-2 | 1-1 | 4.5 (43) | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 3-2 | 1-1 | 1.9 (54) | 0 | 0 |
| Colorado | 3-2 | 0-2 | 0.3 (60) | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona State | 1-4 | 0-2 | -7.4 (98) | 0 | 0 |
| Stanford | 1-4 | 0-3 | -10.3 (105) | 0 | 0 |