Outlining Clemson’s path to the College Football Playoff

Clemson can return to the College Football Playoff in 2023, but the Tigers must first go through trials and tribulations during the regular season, which could be full of surprises.

For the first time since 2015, Clemson failed to receive a bid to the College Football Playoff last year, and now the Tigers are looking to return in the 2022 season.

Opening up against Georiga Tech on Sept. 5, Clemson doesn’t have the most daunting schedule, but a path to the Playoff is no easy feat.

Unlike last season, Clemson will not have to play a powerhouse SEC school in Georgia; however, an away Nov. 5 matchup with Notre Dame still poses a significant threat. Add in some deceivingly tough ACC games, and Clemson’s road to being selected as a Playoff team becomes even more difficult.

Here’s what Heather Dinich had to say about Clemson’s path to the Playoff via ESPN.

Preseason FPI: No. 4
Preseason SP+: No. 5
Chance to win conference: 59%
Chance to make the CFP: 59%
Chance to play in the national title game: 26%

Biggest obstacle: Nov. 5 at Notre Dame. This should be Clemson’s biggest opportunity to impress the selection committee on the national stage. If Clemson loses this game, it can still finish in the top four with an ACC title, but it’s not a guarantee. It still depends on how the other Power 5 champions fare in similarly difficult nonconference games.

What the committee will like: A 4-0 nonconference record. Clemson shouldn’t have any problems with Furman or Louisiana Tech (especially at home), but if the Tigers can win at South Bend, Indiana, and beat rival South Carolina at home, they’ll have a much better case for the top four as an ACC champ. South Carolina is making strides under Shane Beamer and is a potential top 25 opponent.

What the committee won’t like: No. 44 strength of schedule. Of the top 12 teams in the FPI, only Pitt (No. 54) is ranked lower.

Dinich’s take on the Tigers’ path to the Playoff is spot on. The Notre Dame matchup will likely determine if Clemson can be a top-four team come December. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ weak strength of schedule will play into the committee’s decision, although it hasn’t stopped it from selecting Clemson in years past.

According to ESPN’s playoff predictor, Alabama, Clemson, Georiga and Ohio State are the four teams most likely to make it to the Playoff.

The Tigers are preseason favorites to finish in the top-four, but the long journey to reach that pedestal will be no small task.

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