The Ottawa Senators (2-11-1) visit the Winnipeg Jets (7-4-1) for the first game of another two-game set in the all-Canadian North Division. Thursday’s puck drop at Bell MTS Place will be at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Senators-Jets NHL odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Jets swept a three-game set in Ottawa from Jan. 19-23. They won all three games over the Senators by a combined score of 14-7 and won each of the last two games of the series by 3-goal margins.
Senators at Jets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Senators +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Jets -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Senators +1.5 (-125) | Jets -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Senators at Jets: Projected starting goalies
Matt Murray (2-6-1, .886 SV%, 2.65 GAA) vs. Connor Hellebuyck (5-3-1, .911 SV%, 2.55 GAA)
Murray was forced into action in relief of backup Marcus Hogberg Tuesday and stopped all 9 Edmonton Oilers shots in just under 35 minutes of action. The veteran has a .947 save percentage over his last four appearances.
Hellebuyck’s shot count has been down a little bit this season, as he has faced 30 or more shots just twice in his nine games after leading the league in shots faced each of the last two seasons. He took the loss his last time out against the Calgary Flames with 3 goals allowed on 29 shots.
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Senators at Jets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Senators 3, Jets 2
Money line (ML)
The SENATORS (+180) are worth backing for the road upset with Murray back in net and in top form recently. Ottawa vastly outplayed Edmonton Tuesday but was undone by a poor goaltending performance from Hogberg.
The Senators’ Corsi For, expected goals and scoring chance metrics at 5-on-5 have been trending up in recent games, and they actually have a narrow edge over the Jets in total shot attempts, including blocked and missed shots, at full strength.
Special teams play has been a major weakness for Ottawa, but the value is right for a team much improved in 5-on-5 play from when these two teams met a few weeks ago.
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Against the spread (ATS)
The Jets are so heavily favored on the money line that there’s actually plenty of value in a play on the SENATORS +1.5 (-125) to stay within 1 goal in a loss.
Two of the Senators’ last three losses were played within a single-goal margin, and the other loss required an empty-netter from the Oilers. Three of Winnipeg’s last four games were decided by a single goal as the Jets went 1-1-1 in those contests.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 6 (-105) in a goaltending matchup between the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and a rapidly improving Murray.
There are some concerns over penalty trouble in a physical game, but the Sens can win a low-scoring game if the majority of it is played at even strength.
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