Three weeks remain in the regular season, so the race for spots in conference championship weekend and the ensuing College Football Playoff is heating up.
The Oregon Ducks are in prime position to reach both. They are one of two undefeated teams in the Big Ten Conference, and the No. 1 team in the nation for the fourth consecutive week.
However, some don’t think the Ducks will make it out of their first season in the Big Ten as the conference champions.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Oregon has the second-best odds in the Big Ten to win the conference title, sitting behind the Ohio State Buckeyes. While no team has clinched its spot in the conference title game, the game between Ohio State and Indiana in Week 13 will likely send the winner to Indianapolis.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
In short, it looks at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicts what percentage the Ducks have to win each game. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 11:
Oregon at Wisconsin Badgers — Week 12
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.6%
Previous FPI Win %: 76.2%
Oregon vs. Washington Huskies — Week 14
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 89.3%
Previous FPI Win %: 87.9%
Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 26.8%
Previous Odds: 24.7%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 37.8%
(Ohio State Conference Title Odds: 43.5%)
Previous Odds: 35.1%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 95.3%
Previous Odds: 95.6%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 19.3%
Previous Odds: 20.0%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 7.8%
Previous Odds: 8.5%
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