The Oregon Ducks (3-2) face the No. 13 USC Trojans (5-0) in the Pac-12 championship game in the United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Oregon-USC college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Trojans are ranked No. 13 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Oregon at USC: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Oregon -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | USC +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Oregon -3 (-110) | USC +3 (-110)
- Over/Under: 63.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Oregon at USC: Three things to know
- After starting out 3-0, Oregon has lost back-to-back games with its latest coming as 9-point road favorites at California on Dec. 5. The Ducks out-gained the Golden Bears by nearly 100 yards but hurt their own chances by committing nine penalties for 60 yards and losing two fumbles in the 21-17 loss.
- USC (-3.5) climbed back from a double-digit deficit to beat UCLA 43-38 last week. Following a go-ahead field goal by the Bruins in the final minute, Trojans QB Kedon Slovis led USC down the field and connected WR Amon-Ra St. Brown for a game-winning touchdown pass with 16 seconds left.
- Oregon’s scheduled opponent last week—Washington—was forced to cancel the game because of a COVID outbreak within its program. The Ducks are second in the Pac-12’s North division and are replacing the first-place team (Washington) in this title game.
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Oregon at USC: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
USC 41, Oregon 31
Money line (ML)
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE. Personally, -155 is a fair price if you feel strong enough about a side, but USC has played too many close games for me to pay that price for the Trojans’ money line.
Against the spread (ATS)
Aside from USC’s first game when its rush defense got gashed by Arizona State, the Trojans have done pretty well versus the run. And if USC has success bottling up the ground game and forces the Ducks to convert several 3rd-and-longs, then Oregon’s Achilles’ heel will show (turnovers).
The Ducks are minus-seven in turnover differential and ranked 124th in offensive turnover rate while USC’s defense has 15 takeaways and is ranked fourth in defensive turnover rate, according to Football Outsiders.
Additionally, the market is backing USC causing bookmakers to move the line from the Trojans being favored by one point to the current line. Let’s follow the money, BET USC -3 (-110) for 1 unit and hope we get the best number.
Over/Under (O/U)
If you remove Oregon’s turnovers, the Ducks are more productive and have better balance on offense. Oregon has a higher net yards and points per play and is better in high leverage situations (net 3rd down conversion and red zone scoring percentages).
For USC, QB Kedon Slovis is diming defenses up, and Oregon doesn’t get to the quarterback (102nd in sack rate) nor intercept them either (115th in opponent’s interception rate). Slovis is going to be comfy back there and should have success against an unproven Oregon pass defense.
GIMME OVER 63.5 (-115) for 1 unit.
Also see:
- 3 reasons USC will beat Oregon in Pac-12 Championship Game (Trojans Wire)
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