The No. 14 North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3, 7-3 ACC) meet the No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (8-1, 8-1 SEC) in the Capital One Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze North Carolina-Texas A&M college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
North Carolina vs. Texas A&M: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: North Carolina +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Texas A&M -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: North Carolina +9 (-110) | Texas A&M -9 (-110)
- Over/Under: 65.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
North Carolina vs. Texas A&M: Three things to know
- North Carolina beat the tar out of the Miami Hurricanes 62-26 in its final regular-season game. It capped a 2020 campaign in which North Carolina had the highest winning percentage in the program since 2015.
- The Aggies flirted with a College Football Playoff appearance but fell short by one spot in what is head coach Jimbo Fisher’s third year on the job. Texas A&M’s lone loss came to No. 1 Alabama Oct. 3. The Aggies have rattled off six straight double-digit victories coming into the Orange Bowl.
- This is North Carolina head coach Mack Brown’s second season in charge and the Tar Heels beat Temple 55-13 in last year’s Military Bowl. Brown has a career 14-8 record in bowl games. Texas A&M’s football program is also trending up under Fisher. He has the Aggies in their first New Year’s Six bowl game since their 2012 Cotton Bowl appearance. Fisher has a 7-2 record in bowl games and won the 2013 BCS Championship while head coach of Florida State.
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North Carolina vs. Texas A&M: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Texas A&M 35, North Carolina 24
Money line (ML)
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because it’s too risky and expensive to take Texas A&M on the money line.
I do think the Aggies are a big enough lock to include them in money line parlays if that’s your thing.
Against the spread (ATS)
While one might think Texas A&M could come into the Orange Bowl a little sullen having just missed out on the CFP, I think Fisher is going to have his guys ready to play. Aggies senior QB Kellen Mond is playing in his final game in the program and you know Fisher wants to send him off on a winning note.
I am not so sure about how dialed into this bowl game North Carolina will be. A few key contributors for the Tar Heels opted out of the Orange Bowl, including RB Michael Carter (leader in rushing yards), WR Dyami Brown (leader in receiving yards) and LB Chazz Surratt (leader in tackles and is tied for the team lead with 6 sacks).
This intel is already baked into the line and the market has steamed Texas A&M from a 6-point opening favorite to the current number. Since we aren’t getting the best of the number, I only lean TEXAS A&M -9 (-110) for a half-unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Let’s follow the market movement in North Carolina-Texas A&M and BET UNDER 65.5 (-110) for 1 unit. It’s a fairly obvious play given the missing offensive production from the Tar Heels but this line was probably too high anyway.
Texas A&M doesn’t have an explosive offense but does have a smothering defense. North Carolina sophomore QB Sam Howell has a bright future ahead of him but it’s going to be pretty easy for the Aggies to defend Howell if he’s without his leading rusher and receiver.
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