A few days removed from Oklahoma’s defeat of Texas at the Cotton Bowl, defensive coordinator Alex Grinch made a statement that resonated at the time.
“There are stretches of time—long stretches of time—where we’re almost guilty of being a pretty good defense,” he said. “Like, screw around and do it much longer, they’re actually gonna call us good.”
Grinch was right then, and he’s even more right now. His defense, only in the second-year of his “Speed D” philosophy, is very good. Oklahoma ranks 12th in the nation in defensive expected points (EPA) per play. Oklahoma State, whose defense has received a treasure trove of praise this season, ranks 11th.
It’s no certainty that Grinch’s defense is headed for a top-15 finish, but the best offensive teams in the Big 12 are already behind them. Whether they finish the season as an elite unit or not, the reality is this: Grinch was brought on to try and salvage a defense that looked hopeless. He’s done all that and more in less than two years’ time.
How did he do it? By creating havoc at the line of scrimmage.
I know, I know. Havoc is an extreme buzzword when it comes to this defense, but that might not be a bad thing. First off, what do Grinch and everyone else mean by havoc?
Havoc plays refer to any play that disrupts the offense’s intended concept. These include sacks, tackles for loss and pass-breakups.
So Grinch is committed to creating havoc, but he’s also committed to causing turnovers, and the two don’t really seem to be related. Or do they? To find out, I charted every FBS team by the number of havoc plays they created and the number of turnovers they forced.
The result is a moderate correlation between havoc plays and turnovers (r = .398). Keeping in mind that turnovers are very random and hard to predict, this level of correlation is pretty significant.
So we know that havoc plays do actually cause turnovers. Next question, is Grinch’s defense actually creating havoc?
Last season, the Sooners ranked 49th among FBS teams in havoc rate. So far this season, Oklahoma ranks 27th. But one player in particular offers reason to believe that the Sooners are tending the right direction in terms of havoc.
Oklahoma possessed the best pass-rusher in the country before defensive end Ronnie Perkins returned from suspension. Now that Perkins is back, Oklahoma’s defensive line consists of two of the top three edge rushers in the FBS. As the season wears on, you can reasonably expect Oklahoma’s havoc rate to continue on its current trend.
So we know that Oklahoma is adept at creating havoc, particular off the edge, and we know that havoc causes turnovers. So then, why doesn’t Oklahoma cause a lot of turnovers? The Sooners ranked second-to-last (129th) in takeaways per game last season and 70th so far this year.
Once again, turnovers are random. They’re probably the most random facet of football, especially considering how important they are to winning games. That’s important to keep in mind.
Just remember that havoc causes turnovers. So long as Oklahoma is creating havoc at the line of scrimmage, the turnovers will come.
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