Another week, another favorable set of results for Oklahoma.
With Oklahoma State’s 20-18 defeat of Kansas State, there are now just four teams in serious contention to appear in the Big 12 championship.
Oklahoma State leads the way with a 52 percent chance, next Oklahoma with a 50 percent chance, then Texas at 48 percent and Iowa State at 41 percent. Kansas State has just an 8 percent chance of making the Big 12 championship.
When it comes to winning the conference, Oklahoma is still ahead, now with a 35 percent chance of winning the Big 12, followed closely by Oklahoma State at 30 percent, Texas at 20 percent and Iowa State at 13 percent.
If you’re unsure why this group of teams favors Oklahoma: the Sooners have already claimed a win over one of them (Texas) with a chance to beat another (Oklahoma State). A 2-1 record over the teams vying for the conference is always a good thing.
It’s becoming increasingly hard to imagine scenarios where the Sooners win out without making the conference championship. In fact, there’s just one: Kansas State winning out (including a win over Iowa State) and Iowa State winning out besides the Kansas State game.
This scenario has two possible outcomes. If Oklahoma State wins out besides Bedlam, that would set up a four-way tie between Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Kansas State. Kansas State and Oklahoma State would win this tie.
Should the Cowboys drop a game outside of Bedlam (not likely given their schedule) that would yield a three-way tie between Oklahoma, Iowa State and Kansas State. Iowa State and Kansas State would win this tie.
Either way, Kansas State winning out (and Iowa State winning out besides Kansas State) is now the lone outcome that can prevent a two-loss Oklahoma from the Big 12 championship.
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