Half of this week’s Big 12 slate was wiped away on Friday when Baylor’s week 3 matchup with Houston was postponed amid COVID-19 concerns. So when Oklahoma State faces off against in-state foe Tulsa on Saturday, it’ll mark the only Big 12 action we’ll be getting all week.
Well, it’s a Saturday in the middle of Sept. and that just won’t do. As the old saying goes, when real football fails you, let virtual football ease your mind. We spent the bye week building and optimizing a predictive model for the 2020 Big 12 Season. Then we simulated it 50,000 times.
First, ratings for each team were composited from a selection of ten different national rating systems (including ESPN’s SP+ and FPI).
We then calculated win probabilities for all 45 conference games, accounting for the ratings of each team, home field advantage and rest advantage (when applicable).
Now, for the results.
As far as projected win totals, OU leads the way, finishing with 7.7 wins in the average simulation. Texas isn’t far behind with 7.2. OU has won at least eight Big 12 games each of the last five seasons while Texas has won seven Big 12 games only twice since 2010.
Oklahoma State sits at a decisive third, not lumped in with the middle of the pack but not quite in contention for the top spot either. The Cowboys have won the Big 12 once (2011) in the conference’s 24-year history.
On the other end of the spectrum, Kansas actually averaged less than a single win. The Jayhawks have gone winless in conference play twice since 2015.
The table above depicts the probability that each team will finish at any given position within the conference. Once again, there’s a clear separation both at the top and bottom, while the middle of the pack is far less certain.
Kansas finished last in a staggering 88 percent of simulations. This is at the same time horrendous and almost impressive (there have been nine seasons of Big 12 play since the conference removed divisions—Kansas finished last in eight of them).
And now for the all-important championship game. If you enjoyed 2018’s OU-Texas redux, you may be in luck this season.
53 percent of our simulations included a Red River Rematch, and 88 percent concluded with either OU or Texas wining the conference.
Oklahoma State is occupying their usual dark-horse role. A 27 percent chance to finish in the top two is very respectable, though the Cowboys only have an 8 percent chance to win it once they get there.
And once again, there’s not a lot to be said besides those three. Baylor and TCU are both extreme longshots, while the bottom half of the conference has virtually zero chance.
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