The Oklahoma City Thunder (22-17) head to the City of Lakes to play the Minnesota Timberwolves (15-23) at the Target Center at 8:00 p.m. ET. We analyze Thunder-Timberwolves odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Thunder at Timberwolves: Key injuries
THUNDER
- C Nerlens Noel (ankle) out
- SG Andre Roberson (knee) out
TIMBERWOLVES
- C Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) out
- SF Jake Layman (toe) out
Thunder at Timberwolves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Thunder 119, Timberwolves 104
Moneyline (ML)
This moneyline is terrifying me. Why are the 22-17 Thunder only -154 against the 15-23 Timberwolves team? Towns will miss his 14th consecutive game, and the Thunder have all their top producers in the lineup. I cannot make sense of it, and either BetMGM is way off on their number or I’m going to lose money this game. Granted the Thunder are 9-10 overall on the road and the trends aren’t ideal—Thunder are 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings—but the Timberwolves are just 6-11 overall at home. The Thunder have a matchup edge over the Timberwolves in the strength of schedule, field goal percentage, offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal % and opponent’s effective field goal %. This will be the fifth game for the Thunder in the last seven days, and the odds makers could be expecting weariness on the road with such a busy schedule.
I might end up with egg on my face because this bet is too good to be true, but BET THUNDER -154 on the moneyline. New to sports betting? A $143 wager on the Thunder to win returns a profit of $100.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
If we are on Thunder -143 to win straight up, then we love Thunder -3.5 (-106). Oklahoma City has performed well against bookmakers’ expectations this year—their 26-13 ATS record is tops in the NBA; the Timberwolves’ 16-20-2 ATS record is the 25th-worst in the NBA. They crush bad teams when visiting their homes: the Thunder are 9-2 against the spread in road games against below. 500 teams. Timberwolves are 2-3-1 at home against above .500 teams.
In their last game, the Lakers mopped the Thunder, 125-110, but the Thunder have bounced back well from double-digit losses this season—they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. BET THUNDER -3.5 (-106).
Over/under (O/U)
The juiced line is BetMGM trying to scare you away from the Over and the combined per game scoring totals of each team is 227.7. That’s too simplistic of a handicap, here are more tidbits:
- The Over is 5-0 in the last five Thunder-Timberwolves games.
- The Over is 11-1 in Thunder’s last 12 games as a road favorite.
- The referee crew assigned to this game has an Over/Under of 40-16 on the season.
HAMMER OVER 217.5 (-125).
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