Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Oklahoma City Thunder (11-15) battle the Dallas Mavericks (13-13) at American Airlines Center in Dallas with Monday’s tip set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Thunder vs. Mavericks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Thunder are 11-15 straight up this season, but they are 15-11 against the spread (ATS). OKC is 5-10 straight up on the road after a 110-102 road loss Saturday as 5-point underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Thunder have covered 4 of their last 6.

Dallas is 8-16-2 ATS and a solid 10-4 straight up at home. The Mavs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games and most recently lost 144-115 Saturday as 5-point road underdogs to the Chicago Bulls.

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Thunder at Mavericks odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:09 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Thunder +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Mavericks -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Thunder +8.5 (-110) | Mavericks -8.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Thunder at Mavericks key injuries

Thunder

  • G Luka Doncic (quad) probable
  • F Maxi Kleber (foot) questionable

Mavericks

  • None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Thunder at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 113, Thunder 108

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mavs have been good enough at home to validate their (-350) moneyline odds, but they, like with the Thunder to win outright, are unplayable.

Against the spread

LEAN THUNDER +8.5 (-110).

Oklahoma City has been far better ATS than Dallas this season.

The Thunder are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games. While the Mavs are 3-1-1, they were destroyed on the road in their last performance and are just 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10.

While Mavs G Luka Doncic may be in the MVP talk more often, Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been just as good. SGA is averaging 30.8 points per game and has the talent to keep this game close.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 227.5 (-105).

Both the Mavs and Thunder sit in the top 5 in turnover rate, so this game should be more of a half-court battle with few transition opportunities.  Both teams are 16-10 O/U, so some regression could be due.

The Thunder have gone Under in 3 straight games as well. The Mavs sit 29th in pace and should have this game played as their pace, especially at home.

While the Mavs are 7th in offensive rebounding rate, the Thunder do sit 17th in defensive rebounding which is better than where they rank in most other areas.

If they can keep Dallas off the glass and considering the lack of pace this game should be played with, the UNDER 227.5 (-105) is the best bet.

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