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The 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder meet the 5-seed Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 of a best-of-7 Western Conference, 2nd-round series Monday. The Mavs lead the series 2-1. Tip-off from American Airlines Center is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Thunder vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Thunder took Game 1, but they faltered at home in Game 2 and couldn’t quite get it done in Game 3 with a 105-101 defeat. G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31 points, 10.3 boards, 7.7 assists, 3 blocks and 1 steal per game in the series. He’s just not getting enough supplemental scoring to offset Dallas’ offense.
G Luka Doncic is getting the help, and he needs it, as he’s questionable for this one with a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness. Doncic is averaging 23.3 PPG in the series, which is nothing to overlook, but he averaged 33.9 PPG in the regular season. F P.J. Washington has been the difference with 22 PPG and 7.7 RPG.
Thunder at Mavericks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Thunder -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mavericks -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Thunder +1.5 (-115) | Mavericks -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Thunder at Mavericks key injuries
Thunder
- None
Mavericks
- G Luka Doncic (knee, ankle) questionable
- F Maxi Kleber (shoulder) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Thunder at Mavericks picks and predictions
Prediction
Thunder 112, Mavericks 108
Moneyline
G Josh Giddey played just 13 minutes in Game 3, and he’s a combined -28 in 41 minutes played in the series. Something has to give here because the Thunder aren’t getting the production they need off the bench, and F Luguentz Dort scored just 8 points in 39 minutes in Game 3. Giddey chucked up 8 shots in his 13 minutes, which was the most he attempted in the series, and he had a series-high 9 points.
I look for him to step up his game and provide the missing contribution. I also don’t like the state of Doncic’s body and don’t believe in Washington to continue to produce 20 PPG. Take the THUNDER -105 to even up the series.
Against the spread
Speaking of Giddey, his line is a cinch at 6.5 points. He has 8 and 9 points in limited minutes the last 2 games.
Let’s take JOSH GIDDEY OVER 6.5 POINTS (-120).
Over/Under
The Under is 2-1 in the series, but this total is the smallest it has been thus far. The Thunder have averaged 105.5 PPG in the last 2 games, and I look for their output to increase.
Take the OVER 215.5 (-110).
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