The Ohio State Buckeyes were the best team over the course of the 2019-20 college football season, according to ESPN’s SP+ power ratings.
Before fans of Ohio State or LSU overreact to this, let’s break down exactly what it means.
SP+ doesn’t try to crown a national champion. It doesn’t react to who wins games. Instead, it judges teams on a play-by-play and possession-by-possession metric. In other words, it looks at the factors behind who won a football game to see how each team performed in the stats that are easiest to replicate. Using that, it looks forward to predict who will likely win games in the future.
This shouldn’t be too surprising. LSU had multiple close calls over the course of the season (Texas, Auburn) and was statistically weak on defense at times during the season. That’s why ESPN’s FPI rankings also put Ohio State as the best team over the course of the 2019 season.
What LSU did better than everyone else, by far, was peak at the right time. We can see this most clearly in the Sagarin ratings, another power rating that operates on similar principles.
Over the course of the season, Ohio State has the best power rating in the country. In the Predictor rating, Ohio State is a full five points clear of No. 2 LSU. However, if you look at the “Recent” rating in the right-hand column, you will see that LSU’s rating is an insanely high 109.57 with recent games being weighted more heavily. Any rating over 100 is rare to begin with, though becoming a bit more common. 109 is off the charts.
In a great snapshot, the Sagarin ratings show a very clear picture of why LSU won the National Championship this year. Ohio State was the best and most consistent team over the course of the year. LSU was a pretty good team over the course of the year. However, in its last few games, LSU was one of the best teams that college football has ever seen–and that’s why the Tigers are National Champions.