The Oakland Athletics (72-59) visit the Detroit Tigers (62-70) Tuesday to begin a three-game series at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Athletics vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Athletics lead 4-0.
LHP Cole Irvin makes his 26th start for the A’s. He is 9-12 with a 3.68 ERA (144 1/3 IP, 59 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-1, with 3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 0 K Aug. 24 against the Seattle Mariners.
- Irvin beat Detroit April 17 with 6 IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K in Oakland’s 7-0 home win.
LHP Tarik Skubal is Detroit’s projected starter. He is 8-11 with a 4.01 ERA (128 IP, 57 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 23 starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 10 K in Detroit’s 3-2 loss at the St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday.
- Skubal lost to Oakland, 8-4, April 15 with a stat line of 4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 5 K.
Athletics at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Athletics -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Tigers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (+140) | Tigers +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Prediction
Tigers 4, Athletics 3
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the TIGERS (-105) for a half unit because there’s “reverse line movement” (RLM) toward Detroit and Skubal has been lights out this month while Irvin has struggled.
Oakland’s money line opened at -125 but has been steamed down to -115 on the consensus number even though the A’s have 84% of the action on them, according to Pregame.com. Generally, RLM is a red flag because you have to ask yourself: “Why is the House making the more popular side cheaper?”
Also, August is by far Skubal’s best month; he is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 9.0 K/BB this month. On the other hand, August has been Irvin’s worst month of the season by ERA, WHIP and K/BB.
Detroit is also 7-5 as a home underdog against lefty starters with a plus-35.5% return on investment (ROI). However, I can only “LEAN” to the TIGERS (-105) because Oakland is 10-4 overall as a road favorite against a left-handed starter with a plus-21.1% ROI.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS even though I’d love some insurance for our Detroit money line bet because the Tigers +1.5 (-175) is a little out of my price range since the A’s have the fourth-best cover rate in the majors when on the road.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE the UNDER 9.5 (-135) for 1 unit because the Under cashed in 11 of Detroit’s 12 games as a home underdog when the opponent has a lefty starter with an average score of 3.6-3.3. Oakland is 5-9 O/U as a road favorite against a left-handed starter.
On top of that, these teams have a combined 17-29 O/U record when these starters take the mound and Detroit’s lineup has the sixth-worst wRC+ and wOBA and fourth-worst WAR since the All-Star break.
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