The Oakland Athletics (23-15) go for a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox (22-16) Thursday at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Athletics vs. Red Sox with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Athletics 2-0.
LHP Sean Manaea gets the start for the Athletics. Manaea is 3-1 with a 3.07 ERA (41 IP, 14 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 across 7 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 7 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K Friday vs. the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Career vs. the Red Sox: 3-2 with a 6.84 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.41 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 in 5 starts.
- Vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 60 at-bats with a .233/.270/.300 slash line, 14/3 K/BB, 1 HR and 6 RBIs.
- Career at Fenway Park: 1-2 with a 13.14 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 2.43 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 over 3 starts.
RHP Garrett Richards is on the mound for the Red Sox. Richards is 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 over 7 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 11-6, in 7 IP with 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Baltimore Orioles Saturday.
- Career vs. the Athletics: 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.39 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 over 14 starts and 4 relief appearances.
- Vs. Athletics on the current roster: 139 at-bats with a .245/.289/.353 slash line, 30/7 K/BB, 3 HR and 16 RBIs.
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Athletics at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Athletics -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Red Sox 6, Athletics 3
Money line (ML)
BET the RED SOX (-110) for 1 unit because of Manaea’s struggles throughout his career against the Boston and the Red Sox hitters’ effectiveness against left-handed pitching.
Boston’s lineup ranks in the top 10 vs. lefties in several advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and OPS and the Red Sox have an 8-3 record this season when facing left-handed starters.
Furthermore, Manaea’s most used pitch in his arsenal is his sinker and a few dangerous bats in Boston’s lineup hit the sinker well.
The Red Sox’s second (CF Alex Verdugo), third (DH J.D. Martinez) and fifth (3B Rafael Devers) hitter all have a plus-run value and have a .479 or better wOBA vs. the sinker this season.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the RED SOX -1.5 (+170) ALTERNATE LINE for a one-fifth unit since Manaea has given up 18 earned runs in his three starts at Fenway, this Red Sox lineup hits the sinker well and Boston’s bullpen has looked good so far this season so they can be trusted to hold a lead.
The Red Sox relievers are top 10 in xFIP, SIERA, home runs per nine innings, WAR and K-BB%.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over because I expect Boston to do damage to Manaea early, which could result in Oakland using fewer effective relievers if the game is deemed as a “lost cause.”
However, neither lineup has been consistent lately and Over bettors might need Boston to carry them to the finish line since Oakland’s lineup has scored more than four runs just once in the past seven games.
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