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The Oakland A’s (64-82) and Houston Astros (77-68) conclude a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Nationals Park is slated for 2:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the A’s vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 7-5
The A’s are aiming for a sweep of the Astros after a pair of 1-run games (4-3 in 12 and 5-4). On Wednesday, a 3-run 6th inning, highlighted by a 2-run HR from C Kyle McCann and an RBI single from LF Brent Rooker, gave Oakland just enough to secure the win. RHP Mason Miller closed it out in the 9th, earning his 24th save.
The Astros are looking to avoid their 1st home sweep since April 17 as they close out a 6-game homestand. Houston had dominated Oakland earlier in the season, winning 5 of the 1st 6 matchups.
A’s at Astros projected starters
RHP Mitch Spence vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Spence (7-9, 4.42 ERA) makes his 21st start and his 32nd appearance. The 26-year-old rookie has a 1.37 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 130 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 7-6 home victory against Detroit Tigers Friday
- 2024 road splits: 3-4, 5.09 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 in 15 games
- Career/2024 vs. Astros: 0-1, 4.26 ERA (2/3 IP, 2 ER) 2 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 9-2 loss May 13 in Houston
Valdez (14-6, 2.97 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 157 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 8-0 home victory against the Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
- 2024 home splits: 8-2, 2.46 ERA (84 IP, 23 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 13 starts
- Career vs. A’s: 6-4, 2.73 ERA, 85 2/3 IP, 29 R (26 ER), 59 H, 23 BB, 79 K in 14 appearances (12 starts)
- Last start vs. A’s: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-0 home victory on May 15
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
A’s at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:47 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): A’s +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Astros -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): A’s +1.5 (-110) | Astros -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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A’s at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, A’s 2
Moneyline
PASS.
Houston (-250) will get back in the win column on Thursday afternoon, but I’ll save my bet for the run line with the more reasonable odds.
Run line/Against the spread
BET ASTROS -1.5 (-110).
Betting on the Astros -1.5 is a winning strategy. Despite struggling in this series, Houston is the stronger team and the AL West leaders cannot afford to drop more games at home, especially against weaker opponents like the A’s.
Valdez, who boasts a 6-2 record and a 2.73 ERA against Oakland, has been in great form lately, going 5-1 in his last 7 starts. A’s pitcher Spence has struggled lately, going 0-3 over his last 7 games. Even though the A’s have fared well against lefties, Valdez dominated them earlier this season, shutting them out for 7 innings.
The Astros had previously excelled against Oakland, winning 5 of the 1st 6 games this season and Houston has won by multiple runs in 6 of their 7 victories over the A’s.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8 (-110).
Going with the Under is a smart move. Over the last 10 meeting the Under is 5-4-1. The O/U is 1-1 this series, but Valdez’s presence on the mound tips the scales towards the Under. He’s been exceptional lately, hitting the Under in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Over hit in his last start, but not because of Valdez, who tossed 7 scoreless innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. With Valdez’s track record, a low-scoring game seems likely.
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