North Carolina vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions

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The No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (29-3) meet the North Carolina Tar Heels (22-12) in Friday’s ACC Tournament semifinal. Tip from Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C., is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the North Carolina vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Duke, which is No. 1 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll, enters on a 9-game win streak. It won its first ACC Tournament game Thursday 78-70 against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, failing to cover as a 23-point favorite. Star freshman F Cooper Flagg didn’t play in the second half and isn’t expected to suit up Friday with an ankle injury. Duke is 21-11 against the spread (ATS) and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games.

North Carolina, which entered the tournament as the fifth seed, beat the 12th-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish 76-56 Wednesday and then the 4th-seeded Wake Forest Demon Deacons 68-59 Thursday, respectively covering as a 10.5-point and 6-point neutral-court favorite. The Tar Heels, who are firmly on the bubble, are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and 14-19-1 ATS on the season.

These teams played twice in the regular season, and Duke won both matchups. The most recent was an 82-69 Blue Devils road win on March 8 with a 10-point closing spread.

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North Carolina vs. Duke odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:34 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): North Carolina +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Duke -325 (bet $325 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina +7.5 (-110) | Duke -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 152.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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North Carolina vs. Duke picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 76, North Carolina 73

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no great moneyline play here.

Duke should come out on top, but without Flagg, it isn’t worth taking as an expensive (-325) favorite. UNC (+260) has its back against the wall and needs a win. It could be worth a moneyline play, but is better taken on the spread.

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Against the spread

BET NORTH CAROLINA +7.5 (-110).

The Tar Heels are playing for their NCAA Tournament life, and they have been covering at a high rate as of late. They have covered in 2 straight tournament games and in 7 of their last 8 contests. North Carolina has stepped up its defense as of late, allowing 60 or fewer points in 3 of its last 4 games.

The Blue Devils, without Flagg, could be stagnant offensively, and that’s too much unknown to assume it can win by a sizable margin. They have allowed at least 69 points in 2 straight and are 1-1 ATS in their last 2 games as a single-digit favorite.

Take NORTH CAROLINA +7.5 (-110).

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 152.5 (-105).

Both teams have defended at a high level as of late. North Carolina has allowed 73 or fewer points in 6 of its last 8 games and has gone Under in 3 straight games. It is 16-17-1 O/U on the season.

Duke has allowed 70 or fewer points in 9 straight games. While it has been on fire offensively, it will be without its top-scoring weapon, so that might take a hit. Considering those defensive trends, back UNDER 152.5 (-105).

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